Opportunities and Hopes for Ordinary People

CN
2 hours ago

During the online communication on Saturday, a reader left a message discussing his situation:

He is in a relatively remote area, has no conditions to go out, has a family and children, earns a few thousand yuan each month, and is also paying for a small house. He asked what he should do in this situation.

If I were in such a situation, I would primarily focus on risk and be relatively conservative. Because once I fall into risk, it would not only drag me down but also the entire family. Then, under the premise of being as conservative as possible, I would slowly look for opportunities while maintaining my current situation.

For the average person, I believe there are two types of opportunities: entrepreneurial opportunities and investment opportunities.

In the current environment of our country, looking ahead to the next 10 years, I do not see any particularly good entrepreneurial opportunities for ordinary people (with limited education, skills, and average family conditions).

So, it’s best to avoid entrepreneurship.

The remaining opportunities are investment opportunities.

In the case of this reader, I think the most suitable investment opportunities are probably three types: cryptocurrency assets, A-shares, and overseas stock markets.

Since this reader can read my articles, access Twitter, and leave comments to ask questions, I suspect he must have some cryptocurrency assets.

I believe this is his biggest and rarest opportunity.

To seize this opportunity as much as possible, I suggest he simply convert all his cryptocurrency assets into Bitcoin and Ethereum right now, leaving no other coins. Then, withdraw the Bitcoin and Ethereum to his cold wallet and never pay attention to them again. What remains is to endure day by day with strength.

Endure until he completely ignores market trends and the bull-bear cycles, and only consider selling them when absolutely necessary in his lifetime. Moreover, when selling, he should sell as much as he needs, and keep the rest.

I conservatively estimate that in our generation's lifetime, holding these two coins will at least see a tenfold increase in value—this is also why I am increasingly inclined towards long-term holding.

However, in this process, trading mentality (swing trading) is the biggest enemy, so it’s better to ignore market conditions, forget about it, and cut off the temptation of trading mentality.

As for A-shares, unless this reader has been involved for several years and has a mature, systematic profit logic and operational methods, I do not recommend that he venture into A-shares.

This reader may find it difficult to go beyond the mainland, so I estimate that investing in overseas stocks is not easy for him, which means there are basically no opportunities to buy overseas individual stocks. At most, he can only invest in overseas indices through domestic funds—this can be considered another small opportunity.

But for the average investor, being able to hold onto index funds is also a significant test; if he cannot hold on, he will still incur losses. Therefore, I suggest that if he wants to be conservative, it might be better to give up this small opportunity.

The reader also mentioned that opportunities to go to the Pearl River Delta or Yangtze River Delta are limited, and he can basically only stay in his hometown.

Staying in his hometown means there are certain risks in terms of legal systems and (financial) security compared to big cities. Therefore, I suggest that this reader should definitely keep a portion of cash on hand instead of putting all his money in the bank. This cash should not be considered for lost interest; it should be treated as emergency funds.

Finally, since this reader already has a family and children, and is paying for a house, these are significant expenses, and the burden in this regard will only increase in the future. In this situation, the primary task is still to save enough for 18 months of living expenses and then find ways to work hard to earn more money.

To summarize, my suggestions are:

  • Save enough for 18 months of living expenses and work hard to earn more money;
  • Keep a portion of cash on hand, do not put all money in the bank;
  • Endure external distractions and firmly hold onto Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it’s okay to give up other investment opportunities.

I believe if he can achieve the above points, in ten years, this reader and his family's situation should see significant improvement.

Wishing this reader good luck on his journey.

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