Key Points:
The weekly stochastic indicator and RSI for Bitcoin have triggered a bullish signal for the ninth time in this cycle.
Analysts believe that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin is expected to rise to the range of $155,000 to $200,000.
Short-term liquidity pressure and the FOMC decision may drive BTC price volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate above $115,000, with traders focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The current main resistance level for BTC is in the range of $117,000 to $118,000. A breakout above this level could lead to a structural change on higher time frame charts.
Technical signals have boosted market optimism. Crypto investor Jelle pointed out that the weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) has turned bullish again, marking the ninth occurrence of this phenomenon in this cycle. Historically, each crossover has averaged a price increase of about 35%, and if history repeats, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $155,000.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson stated that although he is not optimistic about chart-based technical analysis, the repetition of cyclical patterns provides strong references for the market. Peterson's model indicates that Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000 within 170 days, with a probability of achieving this outcome exceeding 50%.
However, short-term price trends remain cautious. Analyst Skew noted that new selling liquidity (short positions) has gathered around $116,000, which he described as a "consensus trade" ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.
Skew indicated that the ongoing supply in the market and selling pressure during the rebound process show that top pressure remains heavy. He warned that this pattern may be the result of market maker manipulation rather than naturally formed positions in the market.
Overall market sentiment shows a clear divide among traders. Despite the possibility of up to three rate cuts later this year, CryptoQuant data shows that 8 out of 10 bull market indicators have turned bearish, reflecting a weakening market momentum. Nevertheless, some traders believe that the macroeconomic environment still favors Bitcoin.
🚨 ALERT: 8 out of 10 Bitcoin bull market indicators have turned bearish, with “momentum clearly cooling,” according to a CryptoQuant analyst. pic.twitter.com/2ioC1b5Oxb
RookieXBT emphasized that the dollar index is at a 15-year support level, and stocks and commodities are performing strongly, with the S&P 500 index rising 12% this year to reach a record high, and gold expected to rise 40% by 2025, ending years of stagnation.
In this context, the trader pointed out that risk assets like Bitcoin are likely to continue benefiting from liquidity growth and economic expansion.
Additionally, on-chain signals are also leaning bullish. Trader Darkfost noted that short-term holder whales have reaped profits after defending the $108,000 to $109,000 range earlier this month. Similar defensive actions in the past have often laid the groundwork for bullish rebounds, as seen in March and April 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin is only 8% away from its all-time high, and the market is at a critical juncture. Whether the latest RSI signal can initiate a new round of cyclical increases or whether macro headwinds will limit the upward trend, the outcome of this week's FOMC decision may be a decisive factor.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) may break $120,000 on Wednesday—Analysis of the reasons.
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Analyst Predicts: After the Ninth Bullish RSI Signal Fires, a 35% Surge May Follow”
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