Bitcoin (BTC) traders are preparing for market volatility as the cryptocurrency market enters the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision phase.

At the start of this week, Bitcoin bulls need to break through the key resistance level of $117,000.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the market widely expecting the first rate cut in 2025 to come on Wednesday.

A historically accurate BTC price prediction tool suggests that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the coming weeks.

Binance's order book shows that large buyers were active over the weekend.

Last week, institutional demand was nine times the new Bitcoin supply, and the market believes this trend will drive prices further up.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that Bitcoin price volatility has significantly increased as traditional financial markets reopen.

BTC/USD continues to face rejection at $117,000, making this level a focal point for traders.

$BTC / $USD - Update Knocking on the door of $117,000 now. We need to get over that to continue this next leg up pic.twitter.com/58YifZnkLE

“$BTC was rejected in the $117,000-$117,200 range. This is now the only key level Bitcoin needs to reclaim,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows told his followers in his latest X post.

CoinGlass data shows that there is significant sell order liquidity above $117,000 on the exchange order book, while buy orders below that price are gradually being absorbed.

Trader CrypNuevo stated that $113,000 may become a point of focus again around the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.

“I think we might drop to $113,000-$112,000 at most this week,” he wrote in a post on X on Sunday.

This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut in 2025.

The market anticipates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce a 0.25% rate cut during its meeting on Wednesday. The CME Group's FedWatch tool even indicates a small probability of a larger 0.5% cut.

This rate cut comes in a unique context. As noted by The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve has only cut rates three times since 1996 when the stock market was near historical highs.

It posted on X on September 13: “Volatility will increase in the short term, but long-term asset holders will benefit. We believe this is because the rate cut occurs against a backdrop of rising inflation and the AI revolution, which will only further boost the market.”

Cointelegraph reports that the Federal Reserve is facing a balancing act between high inflation and a deteriorating labor market, with the market expecting the labor market to be a key basis for rate cuts.

Mosaic Asset Company summarized in its latest edition of "The Market Mosaic": “Although inflation remains a challenge for the Federal Reserve, the central bank's focus has clearly shifted to supporting the labor market.”

Mosaic mentioned recent downward adjustments in employment data, noting that the market “has anticipated multiple rate cuts.”

It emphasized: “The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is 100%… the only question is the magnitude of the cut.”

Predicting the current Bitcoin bull market peak has become a hot topic among market participants.

Some believe that $124,500 will remain unchanged before the next cycle, while many others are preparing for one last round of price discovery.

$BTC 1W Bull divs still exist on 1W. Wouldn’t be surprised if we got a quick retest of 112k before slightly higher. Again I’m not anticipating a new ATH or continuation of the bull run, this is one bull div amongst many bearish factors including increasing profit taking. pic.twitter.com/bXNSCtp78x

Over the weekend, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson cited his historically accurate BTC price prediction tool as evidence. He stated: “Using the Max Intersect SMA model, which employs simple moving averages (SMA) and algorithmic analysis to identify bull market peaks, this cycle has not yet signaled a peak.”

His X post explained: “The Max Intersect SMA model has not yet given a peak signal this cycle, but it is very close.” Wedson believes the peak is “only a few weeks away.”

The accompanying chart sets the peak target at around $140,000.

According to Cointelegraph, comparing past bull markets with the current one, it is widely expected that the peak will not arrive before October.

Meanwhile, the golden cross of the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator in early September again suggests a target of $160,000 for the next month based on historical patterns.

The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, is showing signs of BTC supply tightness, which may boost bullish sentiment.

Analyst Arab Chain used Binance's scarcity index tool as evidence, and on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant's latest research suggests that large buyers may have been active on Binance over the weekend.

In a CryptoQuant "Quicktake" blog post, it stated: “When immediate purchasing power exceeds available supply, this index surges, reflecting buyers scrambling to purchase Bitcoin in the market.”

Arab Chain also noted that a surge in the index in the short term often indicates that prices are entering a consolidation phase. The current rise needs to persist for several days.

It observed: “The scarcity index has risen significantly in recent months, reaching an all-time high (over +6), and then quickly falling back to neutral or even negative territory.”

CryptoQuant data shows that the index reached 2.94 on Sunday.

Regarding large BTC buy orders, institutions are becoming a focal point for future attention, as capital inflows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded products continue to grow.

According to Cointelegraph, last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $2.3 billion.

Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan believes that the scale of institutional demand will ultimately drive Bitcoin to new highs.

He stated over the weekend: “Why? Because institutional demand is simply too large and still growing.”

On-chain analysis company Glassnode pointed out that on September 10 alone, ETFs saw an inflow of 5,900 BTC. This figure set a new single-day high since mid-July.

It stated: “This pushed the weekly net inflow into positive territory, reflecting a rebound in ETF demand, with BTC consolidating above $114,000.”

The industry generally believes that institutional buying has far exceeded the new BTC supply from miners.

Bitwise's European research director Andre Dragosch calculated that last week's inflow was nearly nine times the new output supply.

Related: Web3 white hat hackers earn millions, far exceeding the $300,000 annual salary of traditional cybersecurity positions

Original article: “Bitcoin is 'pre-digesting future trends': 5 key points to watch for BTC this week”

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