According to reports, the blockchain-driven prediction market Polymarket is preparing for a U.S. listing, with the company's valuation potentially reaching $10 billion, highlighting the surge in investor interest in prediction markets and cryptocurrency businesses.
According to a report by Business Insider on Friday, citing informed sources, Polymarket is exploring a re-entry into the U.S. market while seeking new funding, which could more than double its valuation from $1 billion in June. The report stated that one investor valued the company at up to $10 billion.
According to Cointelegraph, Polymarket was in the process of a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund in June, which is an early supporter of companies like OpenAI, Paxos, and Palantir.
Polymarket is a decentralized platform that allows users to trade event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker, gaining prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when its market correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory.
The company was banned from providing services to U.S. users after reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. However, in July, it acquired the derivatives exchange QCX located in Florida, which may pave the way for its compliant return to the U.S. market.
In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, exempting it from certain federal reporting and record-keeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated that this decision effectively "greenlit" the platform's launch in the U.S.
According to The Information, this move comes as competitor platform Kalshi is reportedly nearing a $5 billion funding round. This follows a funding round led by Paradigm in June, during which the company raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation.
Kalshi's recent momentum is partly due to a court ruling in 2024 that allows it to offer political event contracts—an appeal by the CFTC was voluntarily withdrawn in May this year. The favorable ruling maintained Kalshi's right to list political event contracts under existing regulations.
Measured by trading volume and monthly active users, Kalshi is one of the most active prediction markets alongside Polymarket. However, like Polymarket, its user base has declined after the election.
Market observers indicate that momentum is shifting with the start of the NFL season. Market analyst Tarek Mansour noted this week that Kalshi has processed $441 million in trading volume since the season began, stating, "The first week of the NFL is equivalent to a U.S. election."
Related: Investment giant Capital Group's $1 billion investment in Bitcoin (BTC) treasury stocks has grown to $6 billion.
Original article: “Prediction Market Polymarket Aims for $10 Billion Valuation, Exploring Return to U.S. Market”
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