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Bitcoin: Market Fluctuations Amid Technical and News Factors
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has recently shown a range-bound pattern on the daily chart. Its price fluctuates between $110,000 and $118,000, with short-term moving averages intertwining, indicating a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces during this phase. For example, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average occasionally cross upwards and downwards, suggesting that the market direction is unclear in the short term.
On the 4-hour candlestick chart, Bitcoin's price fluctuates around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper band forming a resistance level and the lower band constituting a support level. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are slightly narrowing, indicating that the market is about to choose a breakout direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, neither entering the overbought nor the oversold zone, showing a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces in the market.
On the news front, U.S. economic data has a significant impact. The latest report shows that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021. Weak employment data has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 100% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17, with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut. This news could be a potential boon for risk assets like Bitcoin, as rate cuts often drive funds toward high-risk, high-return asset classes.
However, there are also factors limiting Bitcoin's rise in the market. On one hand, there is a clear phenomenon of profit-taking by institutions, with some institutional investors who previously held Bitcoin choosing to cash out at high levels; on the other hand, the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has been relatively stable, failing to create a strong capital driving force. Rachel Lucas, a cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, stated that the combination of institutional profit-taking and stable ETF fund inflows has limited Bitcoin's upward momentum, keeping it in a narrow range of consolidation.
Ethereum: Technical Indicators Suggest Adjustment Demand, News Brings Potential Opportunities
Ethereum's technical performance differs from that of Bitcoin. On the daily level, after reaching a historical high of $4,888.48, Ethereum's price has experienced a certain degree of correction. The current price is below the short-term moving averages, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a death cross, exerting pressure on the price.
Analyzing the 4-hour candlestick chart, the MACD indicator shows that the histogram remains positive but is gradually shortening, indicating a weakening of bullish forces. The KDJ indicator is in the oversold zone, suggesting that there may be a rebound demand in the short term, but overall it is still in an adjustment phase. Ethereum's 24-hour trading volume has shrunk compared to previous highs, reflecting a decrease in market activity, and the price increase lacks sufficient volume support.
On the news front, there are continuous positive developments for Ethereum. On August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, indicating that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policy stance. This statement was interpreted by the market as a signal for a rate cut, providing a boost to the cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum. Additionally, the continuous development and innovation of Ethereum's ecosystem projects have attracted more developers and investors, which, in the long run, helps enhance Ethereum's value. For example, while the total locked value of decentralized finance (DeFi) projects on Ethereum has fluctuated, it remains at a high level overall, demonstrating market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem.
However, Ethereum also faces some challenges. As market expectations for a price correction increase, some investors are choosing to reduce their positions and wait, which may exert some pressure on the price in the short term. At the same time, the uncertainty of the regulatory environment in the cryptocurrency market also poses potential risks to Ethereum's development. If regulatory policies become stricter, it may affect Ethereum's trading activity and market confidence.
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