Today's homework is similar to what was expected. The newly released CPI data has very little impact on the market. Both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies are maintaining a healthy upward trend, especially with $BTC showing a significant increase in the trading volume of first-level spot ETFs. However, there hasn't been much change in the trading volume of the spot market, indicating that the majority of current participants are still traditional investors.

The main competition in the market is still between Trump and the conservatives at the Federal Reserve. Although it has been said many times, it remains true. The market is now anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times or by 75 basis points in 2025, so the September dot plot will be particularly important to watch. A rate cut in September is highly likely, and if the dot plot shows another 50 basis points, Trump's chances of winning will be higher.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the price of BTC has surpassed $114,500, the turnover rate has not increased significantly. In the past two days, the investors who bought the dip have been the most likely to exit, while other earlier investors are still observing. This has been the case for a long time; even when the turnover rate increases, it is mostly short-term investors, while long-term investors remain inactive.

Support remains very resilient, as has been mentioned multiple times. There are no significant data releases this week, just waiting for next week's retail data and then the interest rate meeting. It is uncertain whether Milan can catch up; if he can, Trump's side will smoothly gain +1.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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