The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is about to be released. It's not just the coin friends who are paying attention; even capital firms like Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered Bank are making predictions. Most predictions focus on employment numbers and the unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs even directly stated that if employment numbers fall below 40,000 and the unemployment rate reaches 4.4%, there will be a 50 basis point rate cut in September. This may seem like an extremely radical statement, but in reality, both pieces of data are very difficult to achieve. My estimate is that the data release will likely be close to the forecast value, with no significant deviation; it all depends on whether the subsequent data revisions can have an effect. I am quite puzzled by the American data; their style of action is becoming increasingly inscrutable. To clarify for everyone, if the non-farm data is unfavorable for a rate cut, then a short-term decline will become a foregone conclusion, unless we wait for the next rate cut to arrive, which may bring some warmth; if it is favorable for a rate cut, the bull market may start from tonight, which would be more beneficial in the long term.
Recently, I have been focusing on CZ, especially during his speech in Hong Kong, where many of his viewpoints almost coincide with mine. Particularly, the trillion-dollar market of AI + Web3 undoubtedly points the way for ordinary people. If some of my fans among the coin friends want to find the next stage of opportunity, and if their own costs are low, they can consider entering this market. Some friends around me are also connecting AI to the Web3 market, and the returns are quite considerable. Many of the short videos you see now are almost all related to AI. As long as AI continues to develop, it cannot avoid on-chain payments, small and high-frequency payments, applied to the circulation of billions of people, which ordinary banks indeed cannot handle. Especially regarding cost calculations, currently, the on-chain costs are the lowest, and the required personnel are also the least. With the continuous development of AI, it may really eliminate manual labor in the future.
Most coin friends may use domestic payment giants to refute my viewpoint. It is necessary for everyone to correctly understand these two matters. Current payment methods are almost all internet platforms, and both are roles of secondary payment platforms. Even the issue of withdrawal fees cannot be solved; these internet platforms do not possess cold wallet technology. If one wants to become a leader of the times, one must consider that the infrastructure in many countries is not as developed as in our country, and integrating into the global market currently can only be solved by public chain technology. Moreover, there is no point in promoting domestic internet payment platforms; no sovereign country can accept that data is stored abroad and controlled by other countries. The security of data is always a top priority for a sovereign country. Therefore, from any perspective, only the technology of the coin circle can solve the current problems, and the coin circle is playing the role of a trade bridge between countries.
If the above aspirations can be realized in reality, then the market value of the coin circle will exceed everyone's expectations. Looking at it as a whole, the coin circle is still in its infancy, and this market will remain in a development stage for at least the next ten years. Especially in comparison to the domestic market, the viewpoint I mentioned earlier about the stablecoin license issue in Hong Kong has now been rejected for stablecoins from Alibaba and JD.com. Only state-owned institutions can obtain authorization. One can imagine that such a situation only occurs in markets with higher returns, which indirectly proves the strength and uncontrollability of this market. The higher-ups have already begun to pay attention and are re-evaluating the coin circle market, which gives ordinary investors confidence for continued investment. Additionally, American capital has surprisingly started to short U.S. Treasuries in large amounts, which is also a significant positive news for the coin circle.
The future trend will not only be in the coin circle market; all financial markets will exhibit political similarities. If you look at the U.S. stablecoin market, it is almost identical to our domestic one, including listed ETFs. Only the top domestic investment institutions are backed by high-level American capital, which has evolved into a confrontation between countries. Especially after experiencing this polarized representative event, future confrontations will only become more intense, and ironically, this is beneficial for the coin circle. Both sides cannot do without each other; the U.S. needs the support of manufacturing and the real economy, and we also need capital inflow. The result of this evolution is open confrontation and private transactions. The technology of the coin circle can just solve these apparent contradictions. Don't think this is just my speculation. At the peak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy trade between Germany and Russia was almost entirely completed through Bitcoin transactions. This is the value that the coin circle possesses.
After explaining so many viewpoints, I want to emphasize only one issue: the future application scenarios and actual value of the coin circle. It is not as dire as everyone thinks, nor does it mean that Bitcoin reaching 110,000 or even higher will lead to a decline. Most coin friends do not have a positive outlook on the Bitcoin market, and even during the bull market phase, they operate with a bearish mindset, which is a mistake that should not occur. The current application of the coin circle is no longer dictated by retail investors and the institutional giants within the coin circle. The power of discourse has indirectly shifted to the higher-ups. If it were really as dire as everyone thinks, then the high-level figures in the U.S. and other places would have already started to sell off Bitcoin. As long as they do not act, our exit timing has not yet arrived. The rule-makers, at least up to now, are still continuously bullish on the coin circle market. The fact that they can think of shorting the U.S. Treasury market without taking action against the coin circle only indicates that the future potential may be greater than everyone imagines.
In summary, I want to point out that there are giants shorting U.S. Treasuries and also giants shorting U.S. stocks. Even if the U.S. stock market enters a bear market phase, it does not mean that the coin circle will synchronize with the trend of the U.S. stock market. These are completely different markets. Seeking cooperation amidst confrontation is certainly a future trend, and everyone should not underestimate themselves. Those interested can also take a look at the shareholding ratios of domestic giant companies; the current market is one where you are in me, and I am in you. The apparent confrontation evolves into private transactions, and the coin circle is one of the links. The U.S.-China confrontation will definitely elevate the coin circle. The cryptocurrency that will benefit the most will certainly be Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum and SOL. OKB belongs to a special category of cryptocurrencies, and its potential is enormous; do not easily discard such developmental cryptocurrencies. Perhaps in three to five years, when everyone looks back at the current prices, they will realize that the current prices are indeed at a low level. Among the current cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, there is still room for doubling within this year. Under normal circumstances of rate cuts, at least a doubling is expected, and starting with a 50 basis point rate cut, a 2-3 times return is the minimum limit. Be sure to hold onto your chips.
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on a single piece or territory, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, on the other hand, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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