This article is reprinted with authorization from Coin Market Trader, and the copyright belongs to the original author.

Since mid-August, the consensus among Bitcoin holders has begun to show cracks. On one hand, long-term investors have gradually taken profits, leading to a continuous expansion of realized gains; on the other hand, the pace at which ETF and publicly listed treasury companies are accumulating Bitcoin has noticeably slowed, resulting in a significant shrinkage of incremental capital inflow. More worryingly, historical data shows that September has been the only month with an average negative return for Bitcoin over the past 14 years. The current weak liquidity resonates with seasonal bearish factors, further exacerbating the market's pessimistic expectations.

From a trading perspective, market sentiment is gradually shifting towards caution. A clear piece of evidence is that the skew of Bitcoin's 25 Delta options (reflecting the asymmetry between bearish and bullish expectations) has reached 15%, marking a new high since March 2023, indicating that investors are actively seeking risk protection, and the demand for hedging in the market has significantly increased.

At the same time, Bitcoin treasury company MSTR has also faced intense short selling, with the premium rate of its put options over call options rising to 8.3% (25 - Delta Put / Call Premium), a substantial increase of 11.2% compared to the 52-week average. Notably, after the company announced on August 18 that it would abandon its commitment to "not conduct ATM issuance when the stock price is below 2.5 times NAV," the trading volume of MSTR's put options surged threefold week-on-week. On the other hand, another Bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet, has seen its stock price halved since peaking in June, gradually decoupling from Bitcoin. These data indicate that market enthusiasm for investing in Bitcoin treasury companies is rapidly cooling.

However, Bitcoin is currently still in a healthy cycle of profit-taking, chip turnover, and new balance establishment, rather than a trend reversal.

First, the formation of a trend is not achieved overnight. The establishment of a trend is often a process that accumulates from quantitative changes to qualitative changes, and its dissolution follows the same pattern. Only when the number of "traitors" within the united camp accumulates to a certain extent will the original trend undergo fundamental changes. Sudden crashes like the one on August 25, without warning, need to occur multiple times to be confirmed as an effective signal of a weakening trend. Moreover, the current adjustment has not yet broken below the market average cost of 106,700—within the price range of 93,000-120,000, where 5.5 million Bitcoins are stacked, indicating that the adjustment still belongs to a strong oscillation (only breaking below 106,700 would indicate a weak oscillation).

Second, although the purchasing power of ETFs and publicly listed treasury companies is gradually weakening, the relaxation of investment thresholds for 401(k) pension funds and the increased hedging demand during the dollar depreciation cycle are expected to become new driving forces for the market. According to data disclosed in the second quarter of 2025, several public pension funds, including the Wisconsin Investment Board and the Michigan Retirement System, have significantly increased their Bitcoin allocation through spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Wisconsin holding over $600 million in IBIT, and the Michigan Retirement System increasing its ARKB holdings by 200%. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund—the Norwegian Government Pension Fund—has also indirectly expanded its Bitcoin exposure (approximately 7,160 Bitcoins) by increasing its holdings in MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Coinbase, an 83% increase from the previous quarter. These institutional movements indicate that traditional long-term capital is systematically accepting Bitcoin as a strategic asset to combat dollar depreciation and inflation, and its continued inflow is expected to provide more stable structural support for the market.

According to TradingView data, since May 2024, Bitcoin's overall trend has been similar to that of gold, but each round of Bitcoin's price increase has lagged behind gold by 3-5 weeks. This also explains why gold has recently set a new historical high while Bitcoin has not immediately followed suit. As long as market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing and dollar depreciation remain unchanged, Bitcoin's subsequent catch-up is still highly probable.

Although the probability of Bitcoin experiencing consecutive large declines in the short term is low, historically, the MACD death cross adjustment cycle at the weekly level usually lasts at least 10 weeks or more. The current Bitcoin weekly adjustment has only lasted 4 weeks, and from a time perspective, it is still far from sufficient. Even as chips continue to concentrate, Bitcoin's adjustment cycle is showing a converging trend, but this round of adjustment will still require at least 6-7 weeks.

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's current price deviation from the market average cost is more significant, having risen to a near three-year high (active realization price +1 standard deviation). Therefore, Ethereum's adjustment cycle is expected to be longer than Bitcoin's, possibly lasting 5 to 10 weeks. Given that capital inflow remains strong, the adjustment may proceed in a mild manner, oscillating repeatedly within the 4,000 to 4,600 range.

In fact, the historically weak performance of cryptocurrencies in September is not coincidental; this trend aligns closely with the traditional seasonal downturn in U.S. stocks. Historical data shows that since 1950, the average return of the S&P 500 index in September has been negative (approximately -0.5%), making it the only month of the year with an average negative return. This cross-market correlation suggests that cryptocurrencies may also be affected by seasonal capital flows and risk aversion, making September a period that investors need to be particularly cautious about.

Recently, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is about to open, there has been a significant drop in 30-year government bonds across multiple major economies, raising widespread market concerns. This phenomenon indicates that investors' worries about sustained long-term inflation and fiscal sustainability are rapidly escalating. It not only reflects the pressure on central bank policy independence but also reveals the potential risk of a vicious cycle between the expansion of government debt and rising interest rates. If yields continue to rise, it will increase the overall financing costs for society, suppress economic recovery momentum, and may trigger turmoil in global financial markets.

Related: BTC price breaks through $112,000, Bitcoin bulls "still in control"

Original article: “Will the Seasonal Curse Become Bitcoin's Nightmare?”

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