Key Points:
After the gold price peaked, BTC's increase ranged from 145% to 304% within a year.
If the gold price trend pattern repeats, this top cryptocurrency could rise to a high of $400,000.
The gold price (XAU) recently broke through $3,500 (per ounce), setting a historical high, driven mainly by market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
If historical patterns hold true, its "safe-haven" competitor BTC may follow suit with a stronger and more resilient upward trend within a year.
Historical data shows that after gold reaches a historical high, BTC typically lags initially but performs exceptionally well within a 6-12 month cycle.
Analysts point out that in August 2011, when gold hit $1,921, BTC rose by 145% a year later. After the precious metal peaked at around $2,070 in August 2020, BTC increased by 68% in three months, 286% in six months, and 315% in twelve months.
In April of this year, when gold reached its historical high of $3,500, BTC rose by about 35% in the following three months.
In the two completed cycles (2011 and 2020), BTC's median return rate after gold set a historical high was about 30% in three months and 225% in twelve months, clearly indicating that gold sets the market tone, but BTC usually takes the lead afterward.
Market experts believe this phenomenon occurs because gold is the traditional safe-haven asset when investors face uncertainty. However, once gold establishes an upward trend, investors often seek higher returns, leading to capital flowing into BTC, which many traders view as "digital gold" with higher risk but also higher returns.
If a 30% historical median increase occurs again within three months after gold sets a historical high, then by early December, measuring from the current level of nearly $110,000, BTC's price could reach the range of $135,000 to $145,000.
If BTC repeats its historical increases of 145-304% after past gold record highs, its price could reach between $200,000 and $400,000 within the next year. This prediction aligns closely with the upward targets shared by several authoritative analysts, including Standard Chartered Bank.
Whether these price predictions can be realized largely depends on the development of macroeconomic conditions, particularly adjustments in Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and U.S. employment data performance.
As of Tuesday, according to CME data, the futures market's expectation probability for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reached 90%, a significant increase from about 80% a month ago.
Market analysts remind that a key risk not to be overlooked is the bearish divergence phenomenon on the Bitcoin weekly chart: prices are making higher highs while the RSI technical indicator is trending downward.
Notably, the same technical pattern appeared before the price peak in November 2021, which led to a severe price drop of 70%. This historical precedent has prompted many traders to maintain a cautious attitude.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volume rises, potentially breaking through to $119,000.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Gold Price Surpasses $3,500, Setting Historical High; How High Can Bitcoin (BTC) Price Go?”
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