I received this question over DMs from someone that I really respect, asking:

"Can you give your analysis on why you don’t own gold? I don’t believe you do".

The answer requires nuance, so buckle up...

Gold does the best when real yields are falling, which is coincidentally when risk assets tend to perform their best also.

The difference requires more context, specifically that gold will outperform risk assets in a falling real yield environment when the market is concerned about recessions and/or rising inflation.

My belief, over the past 3 years, is that recession odds were overstated and that the economy would be resilient & dynamic, and that inflation would decelerate (aka disinflation).

I was right about that...

So my decision was to own mega-cap stocks, tech stocks, software, cybersecurity, and Bitcoin, because they would perform well as real yields dropped or flattened.

Generally speaking, that's exactly what's happened.

I wasn't necessarily bearish on gold... I just thought other assets would do better.

In a way, I was right on that, but I've also been wrong.

Gold has performed much better than I anticipated, largely due to the fact that some periods have been categorized by outright weak economic data, which then re-strengthens until "resilient & dynamic" becomes more firm.

The tariff situation in Q1'25 really lit the gold trade on fire.

As a result, gold is up +34.9% YTD.

Personally, I think this move is over-exaggerated.

But hey, it's also become a momentum trade.

And I don't like to argue against momentum.

But with stocks making new all-time highs, the market isn't necessarily telling us that a recession is coming.

We aren't seeing a rush to TradFi safe-haven assets (the U.S. Dollar or Treasuries).

If investors were fundamentally concerned about a recession, they'd pounce on the ability to secure 4.26% annual yield for the next 10 years via the 10Y Treasury.

But they aren't, for two reasons:

1. A recession isn't likely.

2. Inflation is re-accelerating.

Take a look at junk bonds... does that look like a market telling you that a recession is right around the corner?

Absolutely not.

So if the economy continues to be resilient & dynamic, with asset prices holding a strong uptrend, I just don't see a reason to own gold and I'd rather "speculate" by owning the best companies in the world and Bitcoin.

It's that simple.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。