Asset management firm Bitwise published its “ Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: 2025” report last week, providing one of the industry’s most detailed long-term forecasts for the crypto asset. The firm projected substantial growth for bitcoin, estimating a base case price of more than $1.3 million by 2035. Bitwise stated:

Our base case forecasts a 2035 value of $1,306,740 per bitcoin, representing a 28.3% CAGR from current levels.

“This is a significant reduction from the previous 10-year and five-year CAGRs of 82.5% and 63.8%, respectively, but remains high compared to Wall Street forecasts for traditional assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets,” the firm added. While Bitwise maintained a bullish stance, the firm noted that compared to competing research, “Our forecast is more conservative than estimates from ARK Invest ($1.5 million to $2.5 million by 2030) and Strategy ($21.0 million by 2046).”

The report underscored that institutional participation would be the central driver of bitcoin’s next phase. According to Bitwise, its analysis resulted in key capital market assumptions for bitcoin over the next decade, including:

Institutional investors will allocate between 1% to 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin, or $1 trillion to $5 trillion.

These allocations are expected to coincide with constrained supply, as more than 94% of all bitcoin has already been issued and the inflation rate of new supply is set to decline further. The firm argued that against a backdrop of mounting U.S. debt and weakening fiat currencies, institutional demand would collide with scarcity to create upward pressure on the asset’s price.

Nonetheless, the firm asserted that bitcoin’s diversification benefits, declining volatility, and low correlations with other asset classes provide a compelling case for inclusion in portfolios. Despite acknowledging risks such as regulatory uncertainty and technological disruption, Bitwise concluded that the next decade will likely mark bitcoin’s establishment as a mainstream institutional asset.

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