Asia-focused Tiger Research has set a Q3 price target of $190,000 for bitcoin (BTC), arguing that record global liquidity, structural ETF demand, and new 401(k) access give the market its strongest setup since 2021.
Tiger’s model pegs a “base price” of $135,000, then layers on multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%) to reach the $190,000 forecast — giving a 67% from this week’s average $113,000.
The report relies on three key drivers. The M2 money supply exceeding $90 trillion, ETF and corporate accumulation now accounting for 6% of bitcoin’s supply, and a regulatory green light that has opened U.S. retirement accounts to crypto.
Trump’s executive order allowing 401(k) exposure adds what Tiger calls “a definitive signal of bitcoin’s transition to a core institutional holding.” Even a 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion pool would equal nearly $90 billion of demand.
Accumulation is visible. ETFs collectively hold 1.3 million BTC, while Strategy (MSTR) owns more than 629,000 coins, worth $71 billion. Buying through convertible bonds has given Strategy’s flows a structural quality. Transfer volumes also skew larger, with fewer transactions but bigger sizes, reflecting a pivot from retail traffic to institutional block activity.
Still, the report admits the network looks unbalanced. Daily transactions and active users remain well below last year’s highs, and retail participation has faded. New initiatives like BTCFi are needed to re-ignite activity beyond institutional wallets.
On-chain gauges also flash caution. MVRV-Z, which tracks how far market price has stretched above what holders originally paid, sits at 2.49 — a zone that in past cycles has preceded corrections as profits build up.
Adjusted spent output profit ratio (ASOPR) is at 1.019, meaning coins being sold are only slightly in profit, suggesting traders are locking in modest gains rather than cashing out at extremes.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), a measure of unrealized profit and loss across the network, stands at 0.558, indicating a healthy but not yet euphoric positioning. Taken together, the data suggest a market that’s hot but not yet overexposed.
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