The short-term price of Bitcoin has returned to the bottom of the range, reaching a maximum of 103,300. It has entered an upward channel on the 4-hour chart, with the MACD histogram shortening and the daily KDJ crossing, but the trading volume is insufficient. Tonight, unemployment claims data will be released, and tomorrow evening there will be PCE data; these two will be crucial in determining whether to increase or decrease the probability of a rate cut in September based on the current expectations for a rate cut.
Ethereum is still performing better than Bitcoin overall, but it is showing short-term volatility, with lower highs in this range reducing trading activity. We are still waiting for better entry opportunities.
Gold in London is strengthening and has now reached the lower part of a converging triangle; we should pay attention to its breakout situation. The US dollar index, on the other hand, is declining, and both the 10-year and 5-year US Treasury bonds are also experiencing a drop.
Bitcoin
In a bull market, the MA120 is a very important support level, also known as the bull-bear boundary. Therefore, this wave of decline has also tested this level, with a minimum drop to 108,666 before rebounding. Currently, we are focusing on the resistance at 115,000 and the MA20 and MA60. The MACD histogram is shortening; we need to see if it can form a bottom divergence and a golden cross with KDJ. The trading volume is insufficient, and the 4-hour chart has entered an upward channel; we are paying attention to the breakout situation of this channel.
The prediction is for two possible scenarios: the first is a rebound to 115,000 to 116,000, followed by a pullback to continue testing the MA120 support, gradually moving upwards with an extended time cycle.
The second scenario is a breakdown below the MA120 to 98,000 to 100,000, followed by another rebound.
Support: 108,666 to 110,800
Resistance: 115,000 to 117,500 to 118,600
Ethereum
The overall pullback of Ethereum is relatively weak, with little change in price. However, it is still at a high level, and I do not recommend making random trades due to low cost-effectiveness. I would consider gradually increasing positions if it drops back to around 4,060. It is also possible that it may fake a breakdown and touch around 3,800 to 3,900 before rebounding. Throughout this entire round of increases, there has been a rapid rise followed by consolidation, and like Bitcoin, a fake breakdown and recovery for Ethereum cannot be ruled out.
After a false breakout on the daily chart, the highs are moving down, making it unsuitable to chase the price. It is also not suitable for medium to long-term positioning. A pullback to 4,060 or a breakdown to 3,800 to 3,900 is seen as a good opportunity for gradual positioning.
Support: 3,800 to 3,900 to 4,060
Resistance: 4,665 to 4,788 to 4,956
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Prince Fusu
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