Key Points:
Due to weakened on-chain activity and low leverage demand, SOL struggles to maintain the $200 level.
Approval of a spot ETF and institutional support could boost SOL, but current fundamentals suggest limited upside potential.
Over the past six weeks, Solana's native token SOL has repeatedly failed to hold above $200, raising questions among traders about the reasons for its limited upside. This concern is heightened against the backdrop of Ethereum (ETH) and BNB (BNB) recently reaching all-time highs.
If the U.S. approves a Solana spot ETF and companies plan to include SOL in their corporate reserve strategies, this could drive SOL above $250. However, SOL is only likely to sustain an upward trend if all three key conditions are met.
To restore buyer confidence in SOL, on-chain activity must increase. Network fees have decreased by 17% compared to the previous week, and transaction volume has dropped by 10%. Meanwhile, BNB chain fees have risen by 6%, and transaction volume has remained stable. Ethereum's Layer-2 network activity has also increased, with Base chain transaction volume up 14% and Arbitrum up 20%.
In relative terms, Solana's fee levels remain prominent with a total locked value (TVL) of $12.5 billion, while Ethereum approaches $100 billion. Nevertheless, Solana's chain revenue has declined by 91% since its January peak, coinciding with the launch of the official TRUMP token and a broader meme coin craze.
The lack of bullish leverage demand for SOL futures further exacerbates market caution.
Perpetual futures typically have an annualized premium of 8% to 14% in a neutral market environment, reflecting capital costs and counterparty risk. The current 10% annualized premium indicates balanced demand, which is not a negative signal in itself, but considering that SOL has risen 39% over the past two months, this phenomenon is somewhat concerning.
Binance's top trader long-short ratio has significantly shifted to bearish, a metric that encompasses futures, leverage, and spot markets, providing a more comprehensive measure of overall sentiment.
Last Saturday, demand for bullish positions on SOL at Binance reached a monthly high but then dropped sharply. According to derivatives data, whales and market makers have not aggressively taken bearish positions, but they remain cautious about SOL's ability to decisively break above $200.
Reports indicate that Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are raising $1 billion to establish a digital asset reserve company focused on Solana, but the price of SOL has reacted minimally to this news. Bloomberg added that the Solana Foundation has expressed support for the plan, but the related news has not boosted market sentiment.
The final hurdle for SOL to hit $250 is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) final ruling on multiple Solana spot ETF applications. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas expects a probability of approval exceeding 90%, but the SEC's final deadline is in mid-October.
Although SOL may still break above $200 before these catalysts materialize, the likelihood of sustained upward movement remains low due to weak on-chain activity, limited bullish leverage demand, and uncertainty surrounding the ETF outcomes.
Related: Trump Media Technology Group to establish CRO treasury company through $6.42 billion deal with Crypto.com
Original: “Solana (SOL) Could Rally to $250 If Three Key Factors Align”
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