Ethereum breaks new highs, the logic of this bull market.

CN
5 hours ago

I only found out over the weekend through social media that Ethereum has reached a new high.

According to my original criteria: only when both Bitcoin and Ethereum break through their previous highs can the crypto ecosystem be considered to have entered a bull market. So, by "definition," the crypto ecosystem is now in a bull market.

However, it is clear that this "bull market" is completely different from past bull markets.

In previous bull markets, before these two coins broke their previous highs, there would be a rise of new ecosystems and an explosion of new species. But this time, despite the emergence of new ecosystems and new species before they broke their previous highs, their current state cannot be considered a rise or explosion; at most, it can only be seen as a slight trend.

This kind of "bull market" is really too boring.

So when I saw this news, I didn't feel any excitement.

So far, this so-called "bull market" is only a bull market for a very small number of coins. The driving force behind this "bull market" is the influx of external capital led by Wall Street. This capital entering the crypto ecosystem is not broadly infiltrating but is mainly targeting two coins: Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For Bitcoin, Wall Street sees it as "digital gold" (I see it as a special digital collectible), and their large-scale buying actions are understood as an attempt to occupy the high ground/anchor point of assets in the future crypto ecosystem.

For Ethereum, Wall Street views it as the infrastructure of the future on-chain world (I completely agree with this view), and their large-scale buying actions are understood as an attempt to seize control of the infrastructure in the future crypto ecosystem.

Regarding these two actions by Wall Street, buying Bitcoin is easy to understand, but I believe this action is not worth too much attention; the action of buying Ethereum is what deserves high attention.

On one hand, Wall Street institutions buying Ethereum certainly have their greed, profit-seeking, and even price manipulation mindset, but on the other hand, they also have a significant plan to layout their ecosystem—I believe institutions will inevitably lay out their ecosystem and develop their projects on Ethereum.

Any institution with a bit of vision and ambition cannot just focus on the 3% to 4% annualized staking yield of Ethereum; forming their own ecosystem on it and seeking long-term, stable, and substantial business income is their greater goal.

Traditional institutions like Robinhood building their own layer-two expansion on Ethereum is a typical example.

And this is just the beginning; such actions will become more frequent and larger.

I also believe that as more and more such institutions go on-chain, they will not only focus on their own ecosystems but may also participate in the current on-chain wild ecosystems and permissionless ecological projects.

From this trend, although the Ethereum ecosystem has not had anything particularly outstanding in the past two years, this situation is likely to change in the next one to two years. Because the process of quantitative change to qualitative change is happening, and results are likely to emerge in the next one to two years.

From this perspective, the four-year cycle pattern of the crypto ecosystem led by Ethereum is likely to be broken.

As for the operations on Bitcoin and Ethereum going forward, I will take it step by step. As long as the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are not excessively high, I do not plan to sell and will continue to hold, even if the price drops from here; I won't mind. As for what price would be considered "excessively high," that will depend on the situation at the time and my feelings.

In short, I will increasingly downplay my attention to the prices of these two coins, and the influence of prices on me will also diminish, leaning more towards long-term holding.

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