This week, technical conditions and broader macro signals are colliding, making it an extremely important week for Bitcoin. Because of Jerome Powell’s dovish turn, which suggests that interest rates may be lowered in September, risky assets typically see significant growth. Although Bitcoin’s price action indicates hesitation rather than strength, macro liquidity seems to have room to grow, highlighting the possibility on the market.
No fresh fuel
The fundamental problem is highlighted by on-chain data: liquidity is steady, but there are no new inflows to support a rally. While capital is not leaving at alarming rates, network growth is slowing, and Bitcoin is not breaking through resistance levels because there are not any new buyers or institutional demand. Even dovish macro tailwinds are unlikely to create the next leg higher in the absence of inflows.
BTC/USDT Chart by TradingView
The indecision is reflected on the daily chart. The fact that Bitcoin is currently testing the 100 EMA after falling below its 50 EMA shows how feeble the most recent attempt at a recovery was. Red candles for several days after the rejection at $116,500, which functioned as a failed breakout, indicate that the upward momentum has essentially vanished. Additionally, declining trading volumes support the idea that there is still more downside risk.
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Bitcoin's key point
Because Bitcoin is at a turning point, this week is more than important. Short-term recovery is still feasible if it can settle at the 100 EMA around $111,000-$112,000, particularly if liquidity conditions improve. If this level of support is not maintained, there may be a much more severe correction with a deeper retracement toward the 200 EMA close to $104,000.
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Essentially, conviction and new inflows are what Bitcoin needs to maintain a rally, not just macro liquidity. Whether Bitcoin can use Powell’s dovish move as fuel for a recovery, or if the lack of participation will drive it further into corrective territory, will be determined in the days ahead.
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