Event Review 📜

On the evening of August 20, 2025, the price of ETH experienced a sharp fluctuation. Starting from testing support at around $4100, it quickly broke through the key level of $4300, then pulled back slightly to $4281. The entire process was filled with the shadows of institutional funds, large whale orders, and high-leverage operations. Multiple traders in the market released bullish signals, while massive ETH transfers and leveraged trading operations continuously validated the active entry of funds, driving the price up rapidly. Reports indicated that starting from 22:21, ETH found support at a key resistance level, and from 22:30 onwards, institutional funds and whales entered the market, causing the price to surge rapidly, reaching a short-term peak at 23:25, followed by a slight pullback at 23:45.

Timeline ⏰

• 22:21: The market witnessed ETH successfully turning resistance into support at around $4100, indicating a potential bullish trend.
• 22:27: Some traders issued bullish signals, announcing entry prices and stop-loss targets, increasing market attention.
• 22:30: ETH price stabilized in the $4157–4158 range, with institutional funds beginning to actively intervene.
• 22:30–23:16: In just 46 minutes, the price surged from $4157 to $4290, demonstrating a strong capital-driven effect.
• 23:07–23:09: Coinbase Institutional continuously transferred large amounts of ETH to Coinbase, confirming the push from institutional large orders.
• 23:16: "Rolling Warehouse Guy" opened a long position of 3694 ETH with 25x leverage, further reinforcing the technical breakout signal.
• 23:22: ETH price broke through $4300 for the first time, confirming the strengthening buying power.
• 23:25: The price briefly climbed to $4307, reaching a short-term high.
• 23:45: The market experienced a brief pullback, stabilizing ETH price around $4281.14.

Reason Analysis 🔎

The current sharp fluctuations in ETH are mainly attributed to the following two reasons:

1. Institutional Funds and Large Whale Orders Boosting
   Recent large ETH transfers and high-leverage operations (such as "Rolling Warehouse Guy" using 25x leverage) indicate a clear expectation from institutions and whales regarding market trends. After breaking through key resistance levels, buying power quickly concentrated, creating a capital linkage effect that propelled the price to rise significantly in a very short time.

2. Macroeconomic Policy Expectations and Market Sentiment Fluctuations
   At the same time, frequent news regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and regulatory dynamics has sparked debates among investors about future liquidity expectations. Some market participants believe that expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a comprehensive market recovery, while others worry that regulatory measures and policy uncertainties may cause the market to adopt a cautious approach. This divergence in expectations directly affects market participants' sentiment and exacerbates price fluctuations.

Technical Analysis 🛠️

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick chart data of the Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT:

• Indicator Performance
• The J value is in an extremely overbought state, indicating a high risk of short-term pullback.
• The KDJ indicator shows a divergent state, indicating enhanced upward momentum.
• Although the OBV indicator has shown a sell signal by crossing below the moving average line, overall large buying power still supports price upward movement.
• Moving Average Situation
• Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) show a bullish arrangement, with clear short-term bullish signals.
• Although the price is below the EMA120 moving average, it is currently operating within the EMA24/EMA52 range, indicating a strong medium-short term trend.
• Candlestick Patterns and Trading Volume
• A doji candlestick appears on the chart, indicating strong market hesitation, which may signal an impending trend change.
• Trading volume has significantly increased compared to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, enhancing short to medium-term activity, with institutional large orders and explosive order data confirming the market's capital frenzy.
• Explosive Orders and Large Transactions
• In the past hour, the total amount of explosive orders across the network reached tens of millions of dollars, with large transactions showing a net inflow of $50 million, further corroborating the active entry of funds.

Market Outlook 🔮

In the short term, ETH is likely to oscillate within the range of $4300 to $4370, and the short-term overbought state may prompt some pullback. However, if institutional funds and whale orders continue to intervene, there is potential for further upward movement. In the medium term, as macroeconomic policy dynamics and market sentiment gradually clarify, ETH may find its upward rhythm again, but high volatility also indicates that risks cannot be ignored.
Investors should pay attention to:

• Closely monitor key technical indicators and changes in trading volume, and reasonably adjust profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.
• Be wary of short-term pullback risks, and build positions in batches to avoid potential losses from significant fluctuations.
• Flexibly respond to changes in market sentiment in conjunction with macroeconomic policies and liquidity changes.

Summary

The recent sharp fluctuations in ETH reflect the combined effects of institutional funds, large whale orders, and high-leverage operations, along with rapid fluctuations in policy expectations and market sentiment. On the technical side, multiple indicators based on the 45-minute candlestick chart show strong short-term buying power, but risk signals also exist. Looking ahead, investors should place a high emphasis on risk control and flexibly adjust their positions to seize opportunities in this volatile market.

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