Key Points:
XRP has risen to $3, putting 94% of its circulating supply in profit, a level that historically often indicates a macro top.
On-chain indicators show that XRP is in the "belief-denial" range, similar to the peaks in 2017 and 2021.
According to Glassnode, XRP (XRP) rising above $3 has nearly put 94% of its circulating supply in profit.
As of Sunday, the profit supply ratio for XRP was 93.92%, indicating strong investor returns. Over the past nine months, the price of XRP has risen from less than $0.40 to $3.11, an increase of over 500%.
Historically, such a high profit rate often signals an overheated market.
At the beginning of 2018, over 90% of holders were in profit when the price of XRP peaked near $3.30, after which the price fell by 95%. A similar situation occurred in April 2021, when the profit ratio exceeded 90%, and XRP plummeted by 85% after nearing a top of $1.95.
The widespread profit situation indicates significant investor returns, which typically prompts investors to diversify their holdings or reduce risk, as traders may choose to realize profits. A similar situation may be occurring now.
XRP's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) further suggests top risk.
This indicator measures the difference between unrealized gains and losses across the network, and it has now entered the "belief-denial" range, a phase that historically often appears before or during market tops.
For example, at the end of 2017, when XRP's NUPL surged to similar levels, the price had just broken above $3.30; in April 2021, when the NUPL indicator exceeded 0.5, XRP quickly retraced after nearing a top of $1.95.
Current trends show that most investors are in profit, but market sentiment has not yet reached the "euphoria" stage. If NUPL rises into the greed zone for the first time since 2018, the risks of profit-taking and portfolio diversification will intensify.
If XRP can attract new inflows, especially institutional funds and broader altcoin momentum, it may withstand potential selling pressure and avoid a significant drop below $3.
After breaking above $3, XRP is consolidating in a descending triangle pattern.
This pattern is characterized by gradually lower highs while forming horizontal support around $3.05. Earlier this month, XRP briefly fell below this support level, creating a false breakout, before rising back within the structure.
Repeated testing of the downward trend line increases the risk of a decisive breakout. A confirmed drop below $3.05 could trigger a sell-off, potentially falling to $2.39 by September, a decline of about 23.50% from current price levels.
On the other hand, bulls must break through the descending resistance line to regain upward momentum and invalidate the bearish pattern. Many believe that in this case, the price of XRP could rise to $6.
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Original article: “94% of XRP Holders Are in Profit: Has the Price Topped?”
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