Original Title: "Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Round? 6 Valuation Methods Analyzed"
Original Source: Biteye
ETH has rebounded from its low in April and is currently standing at the $4,500 mark.
If 2024 is the beginning of a bull market ignited by Bitcoin ETFs, then 2025 may very well be Ethereum's turn to shine.
This article uses 6 valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can break through the $10,000 barrier!
1/8 ETH/BTC Ratio
First, we compare the relative valuation of ETH and BTC.
The ETH/BTC ratio has been very stable in the long term, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is historically low over the past 5 years, indicating that ETH may be "undervalued" at present.
Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214.
If we refer to the previous bull market's ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08, still assuming BTC stays around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600.
2/8 Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings
With the surge in ETH prices, significant off-exchange funds have flowed into Ethereum ETFs. Many overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which is not only sentimentally positive but also represents a massive buying force.
According to @SoSoValueCrypto data, Ethereum spot ETFs have reached a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11, Eastern Time. The current total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $25.712 billion, with a holding of approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH.
In comparison, BTC's ETF percentage is 6.48%, indicating room for growth. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated a goal of ultimately holding 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting the staked and locked 36.17 million ETH, the free circulating supply is only about 7.51 million ETH.
The following price calculations are based on a simple assumption: the reduction in the free circulating supply will proportionally increase the price per unit.
That is, New Price = Current Price × (Target Free Circulating Supply / Current Free Circulating Supply)
If we consider ETFs and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this percentage increases to 10% in the future, and the staking and locking ratio remains relatively stable, the free circulating supply will shrink to about 7.252 million ETH, mechanically pushing the corresponding price to about $4,647; if it increases to 15%, it would rise to about $5,070; if it increases to 20%, it would approach $6,000.
This does not yet consider the amplification effect on the demand side, so the actual increase may be even higher. Moreover, the incremental funds from ETFs and institutions typically take some time to settle, which means the ETH price center will be raised long-term and steadily, rather than experiencing a short-term spike.
3/8 Metcalfe's Law
Many discussions about ETH valuation focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives, but overlook the long-term support of on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count. Applied to Ethereum, this means Network Value ≈ k × (Daily Active Address Count)².
Simply put, "the more users, the more valuable the network." A square growth in user count can lead to exponential growth in market value.
According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the number of daily active addresses (DAA) on the Ethereum mainnet was approximately 971,486, with ETH priced at about $4,500 and a total circulating supply of about 120.7 million, resulting in a market cap of approximately $543.1 billion. Plugging this into the formula gives us the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
With this k, we can estimate prices under different activity scenarios:
If DAA increases to 1 million, the price would be approximately $4,768 (+6%).
If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price would be approximately $5,769 (+28.2%).
If we are optimistic and reach 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price would be approximately $8,058 (+79.1%).
This estimation assumes that the staking amount and circulating supply remain relatively stable, and that the increase in activity will directly amplify network value, thereby pushing up the price of each ETH. Unlike the ETF and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity. It does not rely on external capital inflows but is based on the compounding effect of network effects.
Note that once activity and capital resonate—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burning rates recover—combined with the ETF and institutional chip contraction effect, ETH's price will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, potentially accelerating beyond predictions based on a single factor.
4/8 NVT Model
NVT essentially acts like a "crypto version of PE." Given a reasonable NVT multiple (based on historical ranges) and future daily transaction amounts, we can backtrack to find market cap and price.
NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transaction Amount (USD), which calculates to the current NVT = 518B/14B = 37.
Historically, ETH's NVT has generally been in the range of 60–110, and it is currently at a historically low position. Assuming the NVT multiple remains in a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 over the next 6–12 months; the on-chain transaction amount (USD) is expected to fluctuate in the future range of $7B–$14B/day.
6-Month Scenario
- Conservative: NVT 70, Daily Transactions $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
- Benchmark: NVT 80, Daily Transactions $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
- Optimistic: NVT 90, Daily Transactions $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1,080B → Price ≈ $8,947
12-Month Scenario
- Conservative: NVT 75, Daily Transactions $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971
- Benchmark: NVT 90, Daily Transactions $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456
- Optimistic: NVT 100, Daily Transactions $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1,400T → Price ≈ $11,598
In other words, the network effect of ETH is supporting a valuation range of $5,000-$12,000.
5/8 On-chain Cash Flow Model
Viewing the on-chain "revenue" generated by the Ethereum protocol (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow helps measure network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the network's "revenue" growth can enhance ETH valuation.
Asset management company VanEck predicts that by 2025, with the introduction of staking yields and ETFs, ETH prices could approach $6,000. In a report from 2023, VanEck estimated ETH prices, assuming on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, projecting that by 2030, ETH could reach approximately $11,800. Refer to the chart below:
6/8 K-Line Technical Analysis
@CryptoPainter_X believes that although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the supply zone of the 2021 highs, the technical structure on the 4-hour level shows that highs and lows are still slowly rising without significant damage.
From the ASR channel perspective, ETH prices are oscillating upward above the orange average resistance band, indicating a strong pattern where market demand is gradually digesting the supply near historical highs.
The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average resistance band. The last similar breakout occurred in early 2024; if this breakout is successful, the daily target could directly reach the daily overbought line (around $5,600).
Another possibility is a repeat of the late 2024 trend, where the upper limit of the orange channel encounters extreme resistance.
Overall, the current situation remains positive, and there is a possibility for ETH prices to challenge $6,000 in the medium term.
7/8 Crypto Analysts' Scenario Predictions
Some crypto analysts and media L have provided a series of scenario-based predictions for ETH prices:
Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes ETH has entered a new macro bull market. In the benchmark scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000-$7,000 range by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of around $10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario, if the market becomes fully euphoric, BTC hits $200,000, and ETH outperforms, Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could reach as high as $16,000.
Wall Street analyst Tom Lee stated in July on the Bankless podcast that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and before the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even reach $12,000 or $15,000.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes set a target price of around $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, which is an optimistic bull market scenario. In an article from July 2025, he emphasized that a shift in U.S. policy towards credit expansion would bring a large amount of liquidity, combined with renewed interest from Western institutions in Ethereum, these macro factors will be key catalysts for driving ETH prices up.
The crypto media Bankless proposed in their 2025 outlook that ETH has the potential to reach $15,000 in an extremely bullish scenario. In their annual forecast, they stated that new driving forces, such as the AI boom, could trigger a new wave of enthusiasm in the crypto market, providing Ethereum with the opportunity to climb to the $10,000 level in this optimistic scenario. The underlying assumptions include ample market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI + Crypto), and the continued consolidation of Ethereum's dominance in the DeFi space.
8/8 Summary by the Editor
Based on the seven valuation methods, there is a significant possibility that ETH will reach the $6,000-$8,000 range in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible, and in an extremely optimistic scenario, it could reach the $12,000-$15,000 range.
This is not just "market speculation," but a synthesis of on-chain data, capital behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $10,000, ETH has already established a foothold in multiple value pricing systems as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem.
Risk Warning: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The price of ETH is influenced by multiple factors, including market sentiment, on-chain activity, and policy changes, and is subject to significant volatility. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear the investment risks yourself.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
