Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown strong momentum, with its price soaring past the $4,000 mark, reaching a new high since the end of 2021. This round of gains has been primarily driven by institutional buying and a wave of short liquidations. On-chain activity has also hit an all-time high, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 1.8 million and over 30% of the supply staked. According to the latest data from Strategicethreserve, the current holdings of Ethereum ETFs have reached approximately 6 million ETH, with a market value of about $25.82 billion. However, Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow has predicted that once the ETH price is high enough, Ethereum investors will switch back to Bitcoin, which could reverse ETH's five-week surge. In the battle for the "king of digital assets" between Ethereum and Bitcoin, who will ultimately come out on top?
- Ethereum ETFs Absorb 6 Million ETH: Institutional Buying and On-Chain Activity Reach New Highs
Ethereum has recently performed impressively, with the main drivers being institutional buying and a surge in on-chain activity.
ETF Holdings at New Highs: According to the latest data from Strategicethreserve, the current holdings of Ethereum ETFs have reached approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH, with a market value of about $25.82 billion. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, representing 2.89% of the circulating supply, with a market value of $15.02 billion.
Driven by Institutional Buying: Matrixport's daily chart analysis states that Ethereum's price has surged past the $4,000 mark, reaching a new high since the end of 2021, primarily driven by institutional buying and a wave of short liquidations.
On-Chain Activity: On-chain activity has also reached an all-time high, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 1.8 million and over 30% of the supply staked.
Regulatory Favor: The U.S. SEC's ruling that liquid staking tokens do not fall under securities has brought significant regulatory benefits to the industry and boosted market confidence in Ethereum and staking platforms. As a result, some listed companies have accelerated their layouts, with their treasury holdings of ETH surpassing $3.5 billion, nearly a tenfold increase from last year.
- Samson Mow's "Reflow" Prediction: Will Ethereum Eventually "Return" to Bitcoin?
Despite Ethereum's strong momentum, Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow has predicted that once the ETH price is high enough, Ethereum investors will switch back to Bitcoin.
"ETH Will Eventually Flow Back to BTC": Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption company JAN3, stated on Sunday, "Most ETH holders have a significant amount of BTC (ICO/insiders), and they are converting these BTC into ETH to inject into the new narrative (Ethereum treasury companies)." He added that once the Ethereum price is high enough, "they will sell ETH, creating a new generation of holders, and then convert the proceeds back into BTC." He even asserted, "In the long run, no one wants ETH."
"The Holder's Dilemma": Mow, who has often mocked altcoins, added that it will be "a challenge" for ETH to break its historical high, as "the closer it gets to this psychological level, the stronger the selling pressure," describing it as "the holder's dilemma."
- Ethereum Co-Founder Joseph Lubin's Rebuttal: Will ETH Surpass Bitcoin's Market Cap?
In stark contrast to Samson Mow's prediction, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin believes that Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin's market cap next year.
"Digital Oil": Lubin cited the increasing adoption by corporate treasury buyers and the maturing ecosystem he refers to as the decentralized economy's "digital oil."
"Broadband Moment": In an interview with CNBC, Lubin described Ethereum's current phase as a "broadband moment"—a time when scalability, usability, and legal clarity combine to make mainstream adoption possible.
Three Catalysts: Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee echoed Lubin's optimism, pointing out three potential catalysts that could drive Ethereum from $3,700 to $30,000 or higher: regulatory approval for stablecoins, the SEC's initiatives to bring financial operations on-chain, and major institutions like JPMorgan and Robinhood building directly on Ethereum.
Yield Advantage: Lee also noted that Ethereum's staking model offers a yield advantage over Bitcoin's purely deflationary design. He estimates that BitMine, a treasury-focused company on Ethereum, could generate over $100 million in net income annually from its $3 billion Ethereum holdings.
Macro Favor: Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson recently announced the end of a three-year recession and the beginning of a "frenzied bull market" in the stock market. Lee pointed out that Bitcoin has been a leading indicator of stock market trends, suggesting that increased risk appetite in the stock market could spill over into digital assets, boosting Ethereum's valuation.
Narrowing the Gap with Bitcoin: Based on Bitcoin's current market cap, Ethereum would need to trade at nearly $20,000 to surpass BTC's total value. Some analysts, including Fundstrat's Sean Ferrell, foresee a return to an ETH/BTC ratio of 0.14—its peak in 2021, which, at current Bitcoin prices, would value Ethereum at approximately $16,000.
- Vitalik Buterin Returns to Billionaire Status: Concerns Over Excessive Leverage
Ethereum's recent rebound has brought co-founder Vitalik Buterin back into the ranks of on-chain billionaires. According to Arkham Intelligence, Buterin now holds 240,042 ETH, valued at approximately $1.04 billion.
Risks of Excessive Leverage: Despite Buterin's wealth surge, he expressed concerns about the growing trend of companies holding large ETH reserves, which could pose risks. He warned on the "Bankless" podcast that if these corporate bondholders use their holdings as collateral for excessive borrowing, a market correction could trigger a wave of forced liquidations.
Conclusion:
The total holdings of Ethereum ETFs have reached approximately 6 million ETH, along with institutional buying and on-chain activity hitting new highs, driving Ethereum's strong rise. However, Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow's "reflow" prediction and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin's optimistic rebuttal reveal that the battle for the "king of digital assets" between Ethereum and Bitcoin is still ongoing. Buterin's concerns about excessive leverage also remind investors to be cautious of risks. Regardless of who ultimately comes out on top, this battle among giants will profoundly impact the future landscape of the crypto market.
Related Reading: Ethereum (ETH) Ecosystem Accelerates Layout: From Network Infrastructure to Institutional Momentum
Original: “Ethereum ETFs Absorb 6 Million ETH! Bitcoin Pioneer: ETH Funds Will Eventually Flow Back to BTC”
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