Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.86 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, which is $2.3 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $269.8 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.04%, of which USDT accounts for 61.21%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: MNT with a 7-day increase of 41.91%, PENDLE with a 7-day increase of 31.81%, PUMP with a 7-day increase of 29.16%, MYX with a 7-day increase of 1420.3%, and TOSHI with a 7-day increase of 22.52%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $253.6 million; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $326.4 million.
Market Forecast (August 11 - August 15) :
This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, and Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. continue to see net inflows. Ethereum is expected to break through $4,000 this week, showing strong performance. The RSI index is at 62.75, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear and Greed Index is at 68 (higher than last week).
BTC: Likely to fluctuate in the range of $114,500 - $118,500, with the breakout direction depending on U.S. CPI data. If the data supports interest rate cut expectations, it may test $120,000; if the data is strong, it may retreat to the support at $112,500.
ETH: Performance may continue to be stronger than BTC, with the main fluctuation range being $3,750 - $4,200. Any positive signals from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could drive ETH to continue breaking through.
Short-term investors: Can adopt a range trading strategy, buying near support levels and taking partial profits near resistance levels.
Medium to long-term investors: Should take advantage of possible pullback opportunities to build positions in batches, focusing on strong support areas near BTC $112,500 and ETH $3,300.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a statement regarding liquidity staking activities, stating that liquidity staking is not considered a security;
On August 6, Base released a report on a downtime incident, which experienced a 33-minute block generation interruption on August 5 due to switching to a backup sorter that was not properly configured to handle transactions;
On August 5, JD Coin Chain, a subsidiary of JD.com, stated that it has noticed false reports and rumors in the market and is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong;
On August 7, according to Etherscan data, the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network rose to 1.87 million, approaching the historical record of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024;
On August 6, Cboe BZX, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requesting permission for the VanEck Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through trusted staking providers to earn rewards as income;
On August 6, the SEC officially ended its four-year legal battle with Ripple, upholding the first-instance ruling;
On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of "crypto-friendly" official Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.
Macroeconomics
On August 6, the White House stated that Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. Following the new tariffs from Trump, oil prices rose sharply, reaching a daily high;
On August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle, in line with market expectations;
On August 7, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, compared to an expectation of 221,000;
On August 8, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 92.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 7.3%.
ETF
According to statistics, from August 4 to August 8, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $253.6 million; as of August 8, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.662 billion, currently holding $21.058 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $85.956 billion. The total market capitalization of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. is $152.024 billion.
The net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $326.4 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26 in Tokyo, Japan;
Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.
Important Events
On August 12 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision;
On August 12 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the July unadjusted CPI (year-on-year);
On August 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the previous week (in thousands) (as of August 9).
Token Unlocking
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at $53.04 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $39.14 million, accounting for 0.33% of the circulating supply;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on August 15, valued at $16.18 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $17.12 million, accounting for 1.21% of the circulating supply;
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 9.263 million tokens on August 16, valued at approximately $39.11 million, accounting for 2.04% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also interact with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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