The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. I welcome all cryptocurrency friends to follow and like, and I refuse any market smoke screens!

The market is once again fluctuating, leading everyone to start questioning the sustainability of the bull market. Many friends believe that after the recent interest rate cuts by the US, it will temporarily push the US stock market to its peak before entering a long downward phase; this long-term decline will certainly extend to the cryptocurrency space. Frankly speaking, Lao Cui also agrees with this viewpoint. In fact, I basically assume that this round of the cryptocurrency bull market will be a historically high point, as I am not optimistic about the future use of stablecoins. The current high-frequency policy stimulus has already brought the cryptocurrency space to a whole new height, and the future application scenarios are basically centered around the black and gray industries, while the current applications are almost at their peak. The drawbacks of stablecoin usage have not resolved the issue of asset conversion; it is quite simple that in the domestic market, it is almost impossible for everyone to hold a large amount of stablecoins. Ultimately, it still comes back to the issue of how to cash out, which will instead give rise to more gray market activities.

If the cash-out problem cannot be solved, stability has almost returned to the era of the US dollar, which is of little significance. Regarding the US stock market, it is not that Lao Cui personally has a pessimistic view. Rather, since before Biden left office and continuing to this day, the data manipulation is certainly not just a matter of positions, which is something Lao Cui has always emphasized. Sooner or later, the fraud will explode, and the US's consistent style is such that the newly appointed president's data must be stronger than the previous one. Alas, the wave of data manipulation has not yet flowed back to affect the decline of the US stock market; this substantial data requires time to influence. Meanwhile, this round of interest rate cuts and the flow of funds in the US will only have two directions: one is the domestic stock market, and the other is us. Most giants are not optimistic about the US stock market; instead, they are more interested in the trend of the A-share market. Through competition between countries, it is indeed the wisest choice for the A-share market to erupt in a bull market this round, even hitting the 10,000-point high.

Let’s not talk about the domestic situation, as it is too sensitive. Directly analyzing from the US, it is still about tariffs. Most countries are imposing tariffs of 10-15%, which are basically calculated around trade deficit data. It is impossible to impose tariffs on the exporting countries; they will only impose tariffs on the importing side. Therefore, you can see that countries like Brazil, although they make a lot of noise, have actual measures where most tariffs are almost balanced. Many friends do not understand why there are tariffs, or they think tariffs are to eliminate trade deficits. But they do not understand how important it is for the US to eliminate trade deficits. Lao Cui will directly state the conclusion: if this round of tariffs cannot eliminate the trade deficit, or if negotiations break down, everyone may need to learn from history. The history of the Y-Party war can be referenced; we are currently in this economic form. The US dollar has always flowed to us, while we have little demand for them, which will ultimately lead to a large amount of dollars being hoarded on our side, and their economy will almost fall into the hands of others.

In this situation, the US will certainly not sit idly by. Everyone might think, can't they just print more money? This also has historical lessons; the consequences of excessive money printing can be referenced from the gold yuan coupon. Especially during the mask period, the US has already over-issued, so there will not be any more money printing actions in the short term, unless the higher-ups really go crazy. Under the entire backdrop, Lao Cui suddenly recalled an article from 2020, when Bitcoin was still around 7600. You read that right, it was around 7600, not a zero less. At that time, Lao Cui shouted out the slogan of three trillion: Bitcoin's market value surpassing one trillion, the second being non-Bitcoin native assets issued on the blockchain (now known as ETFs) exceeding one trillion, and the third being registered physical assets based on blockchain (now there are Ethereum-based marked artworks) exceeding one trillion. Considering Bitcoin's market value at that time, Lao Cui's shout became the target of criticism; everyone thought Lao Cui's ideas were too crazy, and some even thought Lao Cui was a promoter of the cryptocurrency space.

Time has passed, and looking back now, it has almost become a reality. Therefore, many users hope that Lao Cui will continue this line of thought and write the next five years. Today, we will pick up the thoughts from five years ago, still divided into three elements. At this stage, discussing market value has become outdated; Bitcoin has officially entered the ranks of capital competition, and the stablecoin concept that was vague at that time has now been realized. The previously mentioned three trillion slogans have also become history. I predict directly that new Bitcoin will still rise. With the gradual legalization of Bitcoin, under the influence of stablecoins, the data aspect has already been controlled, so for the black and gray industries, there will be an increasing loss of security. Moreover, the gradual expansion of stablecoins will also cause a diversion in the cryptocurrency space, and stablecoins are ultimately meant to repay debts to the US. With this knife swung down, the entire market may rapidly perish. Following this, new emerging coins will be born to replace the roles of stablecoins and Bitcoin.

Especially now that Bitcoin's price is increasingly making retail investors hesitant, looking at the contract holdings, Ethereum has clearly surpassed Bitcoin, which also indicates that Bitcoin is getting further away from retail investors. If a market is left with only capital competition, then this market will no longer exist. This step may very likely be realized in the future by 2030. (The cryptocurrency space and Bitcoin will not disappear, but retail investors will choose different coins.) Following the principle of coexistence between retail investors and big players, there will certainly be other coins emerging, creating a trillion market value is not a big problem. The second point is about the application of blockchain technology; currently, the concept of the metaverse has basically reached a bottleneck, and it is unlikely that new tracks will emerge. Regarding TOKEN technology, the current application is not widespread; the only part worth looking forward to may be anti-counterfeiting technology, with more entities choosing to integrate anti-counterfeiting technology from the cryptocurrency space, which everyone can pay attention to. Especially in the art exhibition or cultural relic-related industries, the current anti-counterfeiting technology in blockchain is indeed a unique existence. Including physical currency and valuable items, there is currently a strong willingness to integrate blockchain technology, and intellectual property will be further protected, so everyone can lay out in advance.

Especially regarding the digitalization aspect, it is inseparable from blockchain technology. Many industries may even be beyond Lao Cui's expectations; everyone can develop a forward-looking vision. With the gradual improvement of intellectual property protection in the future, blockchain technology may also see further development. It is not an exaggeration for this industry to break through a trillion market value, and it may even ultimately surpass Bitcoin's market value without much problem. The number of professionals in blockchain technology will rapidly expand, and there is already a trend. The entire blockchain concept will at least double, and everyone can engage in related industries, especially young people; blockchain technology is still an almost blank industry in the domestic market. Blockchain technology itself is not guilty; it depends on how everyone utilizes it. The layout of blockchain-related industries in the domestic market will not be too difficult; this area still belongs to the blueprint, and those interested can participate. Once the layout is successful, it may just be a matter of waiting for an opportunity. The market value of the blockchain industry is unpredictable; currently, there is no leading company in the domestic market, and both you and I still have opportunities!

The third point may not be related to the blockchain industry; the rise of the A-share market, without making predictions for new highs, at least 2-3 times, the reasons cannot be explained, everyone can grasp it themselves! At the end of the article, I will briefly touch on the market trend; tonight will be the formal implementation of tariffs, which is favorable for the US stock market and the cryptocurrency space. The increase may not start from tonight, but it will definitely come; those interested can pay attention to tonight's trend.

Original creation from WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one place, aiming for the ultimate victory, while the novice fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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