Source: Old Li | Crypto Cognition Field

On August 1, the Hong Kong stablecoin regulatory bill officially came into effect. This news has stirred quite a ripple in the cryptocurrency circle. Many people, upon seeing this news, reacted with, "Wow, Hong Kong is becoming more open, and the crypto field is finally going to welcome freedom!" However, as someone who has been immersed in the crypto circle for more than half a year, I must tell everyone that things are not that simple. This is not openness, but a quietly tightening regulatory storm. The concept of "on-chain freedom" in your wallet may have already begun its countdown.

Hong Kong Stablecoin Bill: Surface Openness, Actual Control

The stablecoin bill in Hong Kong seems to provide a legal framework for the cryptocurrency market, but the underlying purpose is far from simple regulation. The bill requires stablecoin issuers to be licensed, pegged to fiat currency, undergo audits, comply with strict KYC (Know Your Customer) regulations, and establish a physical office in Hong Kong. These high standards and strict requirements undoubtedly send a clear signal to the market: stablecoins can exist, but they must "submit to sovereignty and obey."

This is not just a standalone action by Hong Kong, but a strategic layout by China through Hong Kong as an international financial center in the stablecoin field. In the future, HKD-pegged stablecoins, RMB-pegged stablecoins, and even the digital RMB (e-CNY) may gradually replace existing non-compliant stablecoins and become the mainstream choice in the market. A friend of mine who works as a compliance consultant in Hong Kong revealed last year that this regulation is not just about the compliance of cryptocurrencies, but a comprehensive entry of the national financial system. This is similar to the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation), which aims to bring stablecoins under controllable scope.

Why "Incorporate" Stablecoins?

The essence of stablecoins is far more than just a digital asset pegged to fiat currency. Take USDT as an example; on the surface, it is merely a dollar on the blockchain, but its disruptive nature lies in its ability to bypass traditional banking systems, capital controls, and foreign exchange licenses, enabling peer-to-peer fund flows. This decentralized monetary network directly challenges three core pillars of power:

1. The central bank's monopoly on currency issuance;

2. The commercial banks' dominance in clearing and payment networks;

3. The state's regulatory control over cross-border capital flows.

Therefore, not just Hong Kong, but major economies around the world are taking action against stablecoins. The United States has passed the "Genius Act," applying pressure on non-compliant stablecoins and restricting access for certain platforms; the EU's MiCA regulation explicitly prohibits the circulation of unlicensed stablecoins within the region, leading to mainstream stablecoins like USDT being nearly unusable in places like France. Meanwhile, mainland China has directly banned cryptocurrency trading, severed banking interfaces, and the risks of over-the-counter trading are extremely high, with funds potentially being frozen at any time.

Boiling the Frog: The End of Non-Compliant Stablecoins

After the Hong Kong stablecoin bill comes into effect, the survival space for non-compliant stablecoins will be further compressed. You might think that the inflow and outflow of USDT and USDC are still relatively convenient, and regulation doesn't seem that strict. But this is just an illusion. Once Hong Kong's compliant stablecoins are officially launched, the market will enter a "boiling the frog" mode.

Taking USDT as an example, in the future, exchanges in Hong Kong, mainland China, and even Taiwan may gradually restrict USDT trading pairs and payment functions; banks may label related funds as high-risk, or even freeze them directly; credit rating agencies may also classify USDT as a high-risk asset. Users will not feel the pressure of being forcibly deprived, but will gradually find that their USDT is becoming increasingly difficult to use, with fewer and fewer trading partners. Meanwhile, the official-backed HKD stablecoin will be vigorously promoted, even offering free exchange channels to entice users to convert USDT into compliant stablecoins.

This process may seem like a "voluntary choice" by users, but it is actually a carefully designed replacement and takeover. Ultimately, non-compliant stablecoins may "naturally disappear" from the financial systems of these regions, and users may not even realize that their right to choose has been "deprived." In a recent closed-door meeting in the Hong Kong Web3 circle, I heard many entrepreneurs from wallet and stablecoin projects reveal that they have already begun to align with local compliance solutions. Even some executives from Alibaba Group are discussing the future of the Hong Kong stablecoin industry. This reshuffle is already well understood within the circle.

Future Speculations: The Countdown to Freedom

Let’s make some predictions about the future:

1. Mainland China: Over-the-counter trading of USDT will become more difficult and riskier. Banks will scrutinize funds more strictly, and receiving funds may directly be flagged as high-risk assets. While underground trading channels exist, a moment's inattention could lead to frozen accounts or even confiscated funds.

2. Hong Kong: Buying and selling USDT may not be as troublesome as in mainland China, but it will only be possible through a few licensed exchanges, with trading pairs and limits being strictly controlled. In its place, the official-backed HKD stablecoin will be heavily promoted.

3. Taiwan: Although relatively lenient, the influence of financial connections with mainland China and Hong Kong may hinder cross-border payment channels, and the space for anonymous trading will gradually shrink.

These speculations are not baseless. Looking at the EU's MiCA regulation and the fate of USDT, history is always remarkably similar. When the tool that once allowed you to freely traverse the global financial network becomes completely controllable, traceable, freezeable, and accountable, how much "freedom" will remain in your wallet?

Conclusion: The Beginning of a New Era

The enactment of the Hong Kong stablecoin bill on August 1 marks the official transition of Hong Kong's crypto field from wild growth to a controlled compliance phase. This is not just an upgrade of regulatory policies, but a reflection of financial control under the great power game. The future of stablecoins may no longer be a dream of decentralization, but rather a series of digital assets firmly controlled by sovereignty.

If you have any thoughts on this topic, feel free to share your ideas in the comments! And don't forget to like, subscribe, and join my Telegram group to discuss the future of the crypto world with me. Hong Kong's move has already been made. Are you ready?

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