Fundamentals:
Trump stated that if the EU does not fulfill its obligations, a 35% tariff will be imposed, along with related tariff policies for pharmaceuticals and chips, with the final tax rate for the pharmaceutical industry potentially reaching 250%. This move has further strained US-EU relations, heightened global trade frictions, and put pressure on risk assets, leading to a concentration of funds in safe-haven assets like gold, causing a sharp short-term increase in gold prices.
CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 92.4%.
The total network hash rate of BTC has surpassed 1.08 ZH/s for the first time, setting a new historical high. This is beneficial for network security and fundamental stability in the medium to long term, but in the short term, it may be bearish as the price has not risen in sync, creating a "technical-price divergence," which could exacerbate pullback pressure in the context of macro uncertainty. Additionally, the increase in hash rate will raise mining difficulty, potentially prompting some inefficient miners to sell, becoming a short-term negative factor.
Technical Analysis:
BTC:
Yesterday's performance largely aligned with our expectations, facing resistance at 115K and subsequently declining. During the US trading session, it reached a low of 112.6K, confirming the support around 112.5K. Overall, it is in the pullback phase after breaking out of the top box formed in mid-July, technically entering the second round of the downtrend channel. After a low-volume rebound over the weekend, the daily chart shows weakening volume, pressured by risk-averse sentiment from tariff policies, with a short-term target looking towards 110K. The 4-hour chart indicates multiple failed attempts to break above 115K, with a significant bearish candle appearing during the US session, suggesting a possible retreat of the main players. After a low-volume rebound in the early morning, it fell again, forming a solid bearish candle. Trading strategy: Continue to look for short opportunities in the 114-115K range, with key support at 112.5K to 111.5K.
ETH:
The daily performance of ETH remains weak, with strong resistance around 3700 points. Recently, the candlestick patterns have frequently shown high-position doji and upper shadows, indicating weak bullish momentum, along with significant volume-price divergence. Although there was a favorable stimulus that pushed it to 3700 points, it failed to break through and has since declined again. The 4-hour chart shows a clear downtrend with slight fluctuations, with support at 3560 points being briefly effective; if it falls below this level again during the day, it may test 3450 points. Trading suggestion: Look for short opportunities in the 3600-3640 point range, with support to watch at 3500-3470 points.
Altcoin Sector:
Although expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are rising, it has not yet materialized; the ETH ETF is still in the preparation stage, and buying interest remains low; mainstream sectors such as AI, RWA, and L2 have scattered thematic heat, lacking resonance, and market funds have not shown concentrated breakthroughs; BTC/ETH are still in an adjustment phase, with mainstream assets struggling to rally. Some leading projects have shown signs of preemptive selling before positive news, and certain coins have rapidly halved after doubling in the short term, indicating extremely unstable market sentiment. Currently, we are in a structural adjustment phase, far from entering a main upward wave, with altcoins being highly speculative, low in profit effect, and increasing in risk. It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see stance and wait for a rotation turning point before re-entering. Remember: Altcoins are only suitable for swing trading and should not be held long-term; once the theme cools down, prices can easily collapse.
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The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; investment requires caution. This article is for market sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
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