The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are like the waves in a turbulent sea, making people feel anxious. However, its charm lies in the fact that it never looks at your past report card. Stop saying "I'll enter the market when it stabilizes"; opportunities in the crypto world never lie in "stability." The real dividends always belong to those who dare to position themselves amid uncertainty. Market volatility is not a risk; failing to understand trends is the biggest risk.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market collectively corrected, with Ethereum dropping below $3600 and Bitcoin experiencing a nearly 2% decline within the day. Over 120,000 liquidation events occurred within 24 hours, totaling $339 million, leading to cautious market sentiment. The Trump administration announced additional tariffs on imported drugs, semiconductors, and more (potentially rising to 250% in the future), exacerbating the volatility of risk assets, with the U.S. stock market shifting from gains to losses, which transmitted to the crypto market.
Currently, Bitcoin's price fluctuates between $113,000 and $115,000, facing short-term resistance at $115,000 to $116,000. If it breaks through, it may test the previous high of $117,300; if it falls below $113,000, it could accelerate down to the support levels of $111,800 to $110,500.
From a technical perspective, the daily MACD shows a death cross, and the RSI is neutral but slightly weak (48), indicating pullback pressure; however, the weekly chart remains in an upward channel, and the medium to long-term trend is intact.
Long position operation range suggestion: Enter light long positions between $113,000 and $113,500, with a stop loss at $112,500 and a target of $114,500 to $115,000. Short position operation range suggestion: Enter short positions when rebounding to $115,500 to $115,000, with a stop loss at $116,500 and a target of $113,500 to $114,000.
Ethereum follows Bitcoin's trend, briefly breaking the $3600 resistance level to $3692 on August 5, but then retracing to around $3550. It was boosted by the completion of the Pectra upgrade, achieving a weekly increase of 27.65%, but faces short-term profit-taking pressure, necessitating attention to the effectiveness of the $3550 support.
From a technical standpoint, the daily RSI (14) is in the neutral zone at 58, and the MACD indicator's red bars are narrowing, indicating short-term pullback pressure. On the four-hour chart, the candlestick remains near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD red bars starting to expand, and the KDJ bears still have some space to move downwards.
Long position operation range suggestion: If the price does not fall below $3500, consider entering light long positions around $3510 to $3520, targeting $3580 to $3600, with a stop loss set at $3480.
Short position operation range suggestion: If the price fails to effectively break through $3600, consider entering light short positions near $3600, targeting $3500, with a stop loss set at $3640.
Risk warnings and considerations: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. Treasury's issuance plan (planning to issue $100 billion in four-week Treasury bonds this week) may affect market liquidity. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "GENIUS Act" to promote the compliance of stablecoins, which may indirectly impact the cryptocurrency market. The implementation of U.S. tariff policies may trigger liquidity tightening, necessitating caution against the risk of a correlated decline in U.S. stocks.
Currently, both BTC and ETH are near key resistance/support levels, with intense long and short battles. BTC needs to focus on the effectiveness of breaking through $115,000 to $116,000, while ETH must hold the $3550 defense line. It is recommended to primarily adopt a high-sell, low-buy strategy within the range, with strict stop losses, and to consider positioning quality assets during pullbacks for the medium to long term. As market volatility intensifies, be wary of sudden news impacts.
Due to the timeliness of price points, there may be delays in post reviews; specific operations should still be based on real-time market conditions. The above operational range analysis is for reference only; the cryptocurrency market is highly risky, so please ensure proper risk control and make cautious decisions when investing. If you are interested in specific indicator analysis or the impact of new market dynamics on prices, feel free to scan the QR code for the public account in the article below. You are welcome to visit.
Warm reminder: The content of the above article is original by the author. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author; please be cautious in discerning!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
