Key Points:
Despite the recent price recovery, Ethereum futures and options data still show a neutral to bearish sentiment.
Institutional ETF outflows and a lack of catalysts have prevented ETH from breaking through the $3,800 mark.
The price of Ethereum (ETH) rose 9% from a low of $3,355 on Sunday, but derivative indicators show that traders remain skeptical about the sustainability of the bullish momentum.
The recent price movements are closely tied to the broader altcoin market capitalization, highlighting a lack of clear drivers to support a sustained price increase above $3,800 in the short term.
The altcoin market cap reached $1.3 trillion on July 28, coinciding with Ethereum's peak in 2025. Therefore, Ethereum's failure to reclaim the $4,000 mark by the end of July is more likely due to a decrease in investor risk appetite rather than specific issues within the Ethereum ecosystem.
However, this does not mean that investors have become optimistic about Ethereum's price outlook.
The three-month futures premium for Ethereum is currently at a neutral to bearish threshold of 5%. This is particularly concerning, as even the $3,900 ETH price level reached the previous week failed to turn this indicator bullish.
The disappointment among some investors is related to the decline in deposits for decentralized applications (DApps). The total value locked (TVL) in the Ethereum network has decreased by 9% over the past 30 days, down to 23.8 million ETH.
In contrast, according to DefiLlama, the TVL of the BNB chain increased by 8% during the same period, reaching 6.94 billion BNB, while Solana DApps saw a 4% increase in deposits, totaling 6.92 million SOL. In dollar terms, Ethereum's base layer continues to dominate the total TVL with a 59% share.
The waning optimism among Ethereum investors is also reflected in the ETH options market, as the 25% delta skew (put-call) indicator reached 6% on Saturday, right at the neutral to bearish threshold.
When demand for protective put options decreases, the skew increases. The current reading of 3% indicates a balanced risk assessment, suggesting that bullish sentiment has not yet returned.
Currently, ETH prices on Coinbase and Kraken are slightly discounted compared to Binance and Bitfinex, which may indicate weaker demand from institutional trading desks. This contrasts sharply with the period from July 10 to July 23, when price premiums may have reflected companies raising funds to accumulate ETH.
Institutional demand for ETH has significantly declined, especially as Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $129 million from Wednesday to Friday. At present, there are no clear catalysts to decouple Ethereum from the broader cryptocurrency market and push its price above $3,800.
There are currently no upcoming drivers to push cryptocurrencies higher, especially given the ongoing risks of a global trade war and increasing concerns about the U.S. job market outlook. Traders are becoming increasingly reluctant to give the government the benefit of the doubt, as economic growth and inflation data may be driven by businesses and individuals stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases.
Without new institutional inflows, ETH may continue to closely correlate with the overall altcoin market.
Related: SharpLink repurchased $54 million in Ether (ETH), currently holding a position worth $1.65 billion.
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Unlikely to Break $3,800 Without Stronger Institutional Demand”
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