The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are like the waves in a turbulent sea, making people feel anxious. However, its charm lies in the fact that it never looks at your past report card. Stop saying "I'll enter the market when it stabilizes"; opportunities in the crypto world never lie in "stability." The real dividends always belong to those who dare to position themselves amid uncertainty. Market volatility is not a risk; not understanding the trend is the biggest risk.
Since the end of July, Bitcoin has retreated from around $118,000, mainly affected by recession concerns triggered by U.S. economic data (such as employment reports), expectations of creditor sell-offs from Mt. Gox, and technical pullback pressure. Analysis on July 31 showed that Bitcoin was stuck around $116,000, and after breaking below $115,000, it further declined, reaching a high of around $113,300 today and a low of $111,850, continuing the bearish trend.
From a technical perspective: The Bollinger Bands on the four-hour cycle have widened, the price has broken below the middle band and continues to decline, and the short-term moving averages (EMA, RSI) are in a bearish arrangement. The KDJ indicator has entered the oversold area (below 20), indicating that the weakness remains unchanged.
The first resistance level above is at $115,000, with strong resistance at $116,000.
Short-term support is at $111,500-$112,000, with key support at $110,800.
Long position operation range suggestion: If the price quickly dips and stabilizes around $111,500, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss at $110,800 and a target of $112,500-$113,000.
Short position operation range suggestion: If there is a rebound to the $114,000-$114,500 range, consider shorting under pressure, with a stop loss at $115,000 and a target of $112,500-$113,000.
Ethereum's price fluctuated between $3,340 and $3,450 on August 3, with a daily low of $3,350 and weak rebounds, maintaining a downward channel from a technical perspective.
From a technical perspective: The price is at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour cycle, MACD bearish momentum is strengthening, and RSI is below 40, indicating insufficient short-term rebound momentum. The first resistance level above is at $3,450-$3,480, with strong resistance at $3,525. Short-term support is at $3,320-$3,350, with key support at $3,240; if it breaks below, it may test $3,100.
Short position operation range suggestion: If there is a rebound to the $3,440-$3,460 range, consider shorting under pressure, with a stop loss at $3,500 and a target of $3,380-$3,350. Long position operation range suggestion: If the price quickly dips and stabilizes around $3,320, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss at $3,280 and a target of $3,400-$3,450.
Market risks and key nodes: New tariffs effective on August 3 may trigger global market fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the risk-hedging correlation between Bitcoin and gold. The July PCE price index will be released on August 23; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the hawkish stance, negatively impacting the crypto market.
Current operational advice is to focus on high shorts, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline. Pay attention to macroeconomic data and the movements of on-chain whales, and adjust strategies flexibly.
Due to the timeliness of price points, there may be delays in post reviews; specific operations should still be based on real-time market conditions. The above operational range analysis is for reference only; the cryptocurrency market is highly risky, so please make cautious decisions when investing. If you are interested in specific indicator analysis or the impact of new market dynamics on prices, feel free to scan the QR code for the public account at the bottom of the article. You are welcome to visit.
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