Yesterday's decline could still be attributed to a technical adjustment, but today's market pullback has led many investors to start "surrendering." The main reason is attributed to the significant downward revision of non-farm data, raising concerns about economic downturns. However, I personally do not believe this signifies the beginning of a bear market. Even if the data is suspected of "adjustment" or even "manipulation," it is unlikely to directly evolve into systemic risk, as the U.S. is currently not witnessing a financial crisis-level chain reaction. Moreover, under Trump's "tariff + tax cut" combination, short-term stimulus policies have just begun. If the Federal Reserve sees weak data, it has even more reason to accelerate interest rate cuts. In such a macro backdrop, the market still possesses structural support.

For the crypto market, the core of the pullback is technical turnover and data sentiment disturbance. Currently, the URPD gap remains at $112,000, indicating a need for recovery; the two key support levels below are $103,500–$108,500 and $93,500–$98,500. Even if a deep dive occurs, as long as the second line of defense is not breached, it still constitutes a healthy adjustment. Additionally, it is worth noting that once the soon-to-resign Federal Reserve Governor Kugler is replaced by Trump, the new voting committee will further strengthen the market's expectations for "policy easing," which may actually become a favorable window. Therefore, I tend to view this round of decline as a somewhat emotional short-term correction rather than a trend reversal.

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