The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens!

A statement about interest rate cuts has once again disturbed the cryptocurrency circle, and last night's focus was also pulled by Powell. Although this once again confirms Lao Cui's viewpoint, the continuous optimism about American data means that there will not be an interest rate cut. Although short-term short positions have been successfully captured, I still hope everyone can remain strong in the long term. I will not elaborate further on the interest rate cut issue in August. The focus has returned to the interest rate cut in September, which indeed looks a bit pessimistic. With the tariff issues among various countries, the other tariff data has also been somewhat unexpected. South Korea, Japan, and the European Union all maintain a 15% tariff, which is indeed good news for the U.S., alleviating domestic funding issues in the short term. Such tariffs have a huge impact on interest rate cuts; this year, it may indeed only be cut once, and the decisive factor for the interest rate cut lies in the China-U.S. tariff negotiations. Progress is relatively slow, and both sides have little room for concessions. Lao Cui feels that this time there may not be any results, and whether to maintain the original judgment or to redefine it will require time to prove the viewpoint.

Regarding tariffs, everyone must be clear that reaching a tariff agreement will definitely cause short-term growth (lower than expected tariffs), while tariffs exceeding expectations are good news for the U.S. All markets linked to the dollar will experience some degree of growth. The latest news is that the tariff trade has been extended for another ninety days. This year, for the U.S., the entire tariff war has only affected trade for less than a month. For them, the overall trade gap is not large, and an interest rate cut will not come so quickly; this point will also become a bargaining chip in negotiations. The latest news indicates that Canada has raised its original 25% tariff to 35%, which is another significant piece of good news for the U.S. Due to the impact of tariffs and interest rates, the market has finally emerged from a bearish trend. Lao Cui has been calling for shorts, and we have finally welcomed back a familiar rhythm. In this round of pullbacks, do not hold too much hope; you must gradually start to lay out long positions to seize the opportunity for the next bull market.

From the perspective of capital flow, the outflow of Ethereum in the overall cryptocurrency market is the most obvious, reaching 350 million in 24 hours, and a large number of wallets are starting to stir, showing signs of dumping. More and more ancient wallets are beginning to unlock, which, along with the short-term aspect, has somewhat damaged the concept stocks related to cryptocurrencies. The outflow of Ethereum has reached a peak in nearly a week, which basically indicates that this round of initiation is coming to an end, and the linear aspect has also formed a "guiding finger" pattern, with the lower pin's tail likely to gradually solidify. The competition among short-term main forces is also very obvious; the Asian market has been in a bottom-fishing state, and careful observation can reveal these subtle clues. Meanwhile, the U.S. market has almost always been in a dumping state. The formation of this situation is due to the short-term impact of interest rate cuts, combined with the influx of Asian capital. Many friends are unclear about the Asian main forces; we can review that since 2021, there has been almost no Asian capital entering the cryptocurrency market. Even Meitu, another domestic giant, completed its layout before 2020, clearing its chips around 100,000.

Now, if Asian capital wants to enter the cryptocurrency market, it can only buy chips at high positions. This trend can support our bullish outlook for the end of the year. Everyone should not be shaken in their confidence. The competition for chips is not something we can intervene in, especially with the launch of Hong Kong's stablecoin and the previous listing of ETFs, which will indeed lead some giants to invest. Of course, we cannot know these specific numbers. Moreover, Lao Cui needs to remind everyone that the larger the giant, the less likely they are to use observable on-chain data for purchases, and they will not use stablecoins to enter the cryptocurrency market. Institutions like BlackRock are more likely to negotiate face-to-face with other giants and settle in an offline manner. The settlement price is definitely not based on market prices but will be estimated based on average prices and actual prices. Many states in the U.S. have already involved pension funds in purchasing Bitcoin, and this amount will certainly leverage the holdings on the Coinbase platform, or even be purchased in ETF form. Many data points in the industry are impossible to quantify, so do not become overly obsessed with linear trends.

To review the technical indicators, the entire four-hour chart is not as extreme as the daily chart. The seven-day moving average shows a strong selling intention and a downward trend, while the thirty-day moving average is definitely in a slow growth pattern. The Bollinger Bands show signs of convergence, and the forces of both bulls and bears are gradually tending to balance, which is not a favorable signal for bulls, indicating that the market trend is still in a retracement pattern after breaking the support level. The RSI and KDJ three-line patterns basically show oversold signals, while the MACD's performance is very tense. The competition between bulls and bears can be said to be extremely fierce, and the J-line value is getting closer to the zero boundary, reaching around 10. When it reaches 0, it basically indicates an oversold pattern, which further reflects the mentality of retail investors, suggesting that everyone is somewhat losing control. The hesitation over the past two days of stable market conditions has resulted in no outstanding data in trading volume, and even negative growth has occurred, with the selling volume completely overwhelming the buying volume. The advantage of bears in the four-hour chart is still quite obvious. This also indicates that if this round of four-hour charts continues to end with bearish candles, then today's recovery strength will be limited, and it is highly likely to lead to the next wave of decline.

In the hourly chart, Lao Cui will briefly explain, as the article is not long enough, focusing on key values. The short-term Bollinger Bands have also formed a convergence pattern, with the seven-day moving average slightly above the thirty-day moving average, indicating a clear bullish trend. Other values are relatively normal, with only the MACD forming a death cross at ten o'clock in the morning, having completed the bearish trend by eight o'clock, so its reference significance is not great. Currently, it is in a short-term bullish recovery phase. Therefore, from the perspective of the four-hour and hourly chart coordination, the linear aspect will definitely be dominated by long positions. As long as it stabilizes above 3700, and there are no other military or policy directions guiding it, it is likely to continue the bullish trend. Today's market can be considered a point for entering long positions in the short term.

Lao Cui's summary: Combining the overall news and technical aspects, in the short term, using the hourly line as a reference standard, as long as it stabilizes above 3700, there may be a wave of bullish rhythm coming. This market can only be considered a repair market for the new low in the evening. Based on the current price of 3680 and Bitcoin at 115400, the upward range points for both will be very clear. As long as Ethereum stabilizes above 3700, reaching 3730 should not be a problem, so everyone can choose to make light long positions at the current price, looking up 30-50 points. Bitcoin can also enter long positions, looking up at the 116000-6500 range. This position must be completed before four o'clock and cannot be held overnight. The overall trend is still in a bearish state, and at least the linear aspect will show the entity form of last night's lowest point. In the short term, as long as there is no political guidance, the market will likely continue to move around the bears, with the duration possibly extending until the next interest rate cut or tariff-related news is released. As for SOL's spot, Lao Cui has already entered the market, currently holding an average price around 175 with a loss, having only entered a 10% position, which everyone can refer to. Specific prices will fluctuate, so please use it as a reference. If anyone has questions about entry positions, feel free to ask Lao Cui directly.

Original content by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this carries risks!

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