Key Points:
Despite Bitcoin dropping below $116,000, it continues to trade within its 18-day range.
The lag between U.S. regulators and the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration has left traders feeling anxious about Bitcoin's price.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a significant drop after the Federal Reserve released the FOMC meeting minutes and Chairman Powell's press conference, where he explained why the central bank chose not to cut interest rates. On Thursday, as the U.S. stock market and crypto market refocused on current fundamentals and the long-term impact of President Trump's economic policies, prices rebounded.
Although it fell below $116,000, BTC continues to trade within the range of $115,000 to $121,000, with data indicating that a range expansion is imminent.
Analysts at Hyblock Capital described the price movements before and after the FOMC as liquidity hunting, stating, "A classic hesitation 15-minute candle appeared when the market wobbled, with wicks on both sides." Analysts noted that the buy-sell ratio indicator at 10% order book depth turned red, increasing the likelihood of prices reaching the liquidation level of $115,883.
Looking at the current liquidation heat map for the BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit, liquidations and price ranges remain unchanged, with short liquidations accelerating above $120,000, while longs below $115,000 face liquidation risks.
Data from TRDR's aggregated order book (2.5% to 10% depth) shows that sell walls are thickening at $121,100, while a large number of buy orders have appeared at $111,000.
On Wednesday, Cointelegraph analysts suggested that the price compression of Bitcoin and the lack of aggressive leverage usage in its futures market are signs of an impending range expansion for BTC. At that time, the Bollinger Bands were also narrowing, with BTC trading above the 20-day moving average, leading many traders to predict an upward breakout.
Despite the market choosing to target Bitcoin's downward liquidity, some positive actions are still taking place. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that Bitcoin reserve buyers have surged daily over the past six weeks, with "more than three companies buying Bitcoin every day." Edwards also pointed out that his "Treasury Buy-Sell" indicator shows a current buyer-to-seller ratio of 100:1.
After experiencing an outflow of $285 million last week, inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF have also resumed. Data from SoSoValue indicates that since July 23, despite the drop in Bitcoin prices, the total net inflow into the ETF has reached $641.3 million.
This week's White House crypto report and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' speech on U.S. leadership in the digital financial revolution have also laid the groundwork for how President Trump and regulators prioritize the development of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry through clear policy objectives.
While their direct impact may not be reflected in cryptocurrency prices, they do lay the foundation for broader adoption and signal institutional investors to confidently increase their allocations to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, if Bitcoin sellers continue to dominate the market, prices may drop to absorb long liquidity in the $115,000 to $111,000 range. For bulls, the ideal outcome would be a strong buy order at $111,000, generating a high volume peak to reclaim the range above $116,000. A better outcome would be for the spot and perpetual futures CVD to turn positive, with buyers pushing prices in both markets to ensure a daily close above the $120,000 resistance level.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) experiences "significant volatility" after the Fed's interest rate decision, Coinbase premium index turns negative
Original: “Bitcoin Range (BTC) Continues to Chop, But a Breakout is Brewing”
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