The well-known Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution, Linea, has finally confirmed that it will issue tokens.
According to the latest information released by the team, I have extracted some key details related to retail investors:
- The total supply of tokens is approximately 72 billion.
- 9% of the supply will be airdropped to users…
In the Linea system, the tokens currently have no defined utility, neither as fuel (which remains Ethereum) nor for governance purposes.
According to the tokenomics, 20% of the fees collected by Linea (in Ethereum) will be burned after deducting costs (for Ethereum's deflation), while the remaining 80% will be used to buy back and burn LINEA tokens.
From its tokenomics, we can see that the launch of the Linea system will have a direct contribution to the price of Ethereum.
Although its token LINEA has no practical utility by definition, it serves a similar purpose to "stocks" in the system. Most of the system's profits are distributed to token holders, but this distribution is achieved through buybacks and burns.
This is certainly better than other tokens that only have governance functions without any economic empowerment.
From the issuance volume of the tokens, we can also estimate a fair price for the token.
Among the already issued tokens in Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling solutions, the two strongest ecosystems are Arb and OP, with fully diluted market capitalizations (FDV) of $4.2 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively.
If we use this standard for measurement, assuming LINEA's price can match theirs, then LINEA's price would be around $0.043 to $0.058.
However, according to the data from https://l2beat.com/scaling/summary, if we measure by the Total Value Secured (TVS) in the ecosystem, Linea's TVS is only $514 million, which is far behind Arb's $17.6 billion and OP's $3.7 billion.
It is only close to Starknet's $518 million.
And what is Starknet's fully diluted market capitalization (FDV)?
Only $1.3 billion.
So if we draw an analogy from the perspective of ecosystem development, it would be more reasonable for LINEA's fully diluted market capitalization to be close to Starknet's.
If we calculate based on $1.3 billion, then LINEA's price would only be $0.018.
Of course, LINEA has a clear advantage over Arb, OP, and Starknet, which is that its token has economic empowerment. But to what extent this advantage will reflect in the token price is hard to say. I will not consider this factor for now.
Therefore, based on this data, it seems reasonable for LINEA's price to be around $0.018 after its launch, with an upper limit of $0.058. If it exceeds $0.058, then it would be quite inflated.
The above speculations and estimates are merely based on theoretical and data-driven calculations. In reality, the development of the project and the trend of the token price ultimately depend on the construction and advancement of the project—this is fundamental and key.
However, I feel that this most fundamental and critical element is performing very poorly in the case of the Linea project.
From the testnet to the mainnet, and now, Linea has been operating for a long time.
What have we seen during this long period?
Even BASE, which came later, is thriving, at least with AI + Crypto; Linea seems to be lost, only recently heavily promoting its progress in ZK on social media.
But what does this progress specifically reflect? What benefits does it bring to the ecosystem? Which projects does it support?
I see none.
As for the token issuance, this matter has been hinted at and suggested by the project team on social media since last year or the year before, and it has only now come to fruition.
What can this situation bring to the ecosystem now?
I have a bad feeling: could this token issuance be the project's last shining moment?
I hope my premonition is wrong.
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