Key Points:
The Coinbase premium for Bitcoin has turned negative after 62 consecutive days of buying.
Despite increased selling pressure and a negative futures CVD, BTC remains above $115,000.
The Coinbase premium index for Bitcoin (BTC) has turned negative for the first time since May 29, ending a 62-day period of positive values. This indicator tracks the price difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance, typically used as a proxy for U.S. spot demand.
This market shift occurs after a longer 94-day period of sustained positive premiums, marking the strongest institutional demand period for Bitcoin in history. While this change may suggest a waning interest from U.S. buyers, broader market signals indicate a more complex pattern is forming.
According to on-chain analyst Boris Vest, the buy-sell ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to 0.9, indicating an increase in selling from market makers. Despite the heightened selling pressure, Bitcoin's price remains above $115,000, suggesting that larger passive buyers are stepping in to absorb the pressure.
Meanwhile, the futures funding rate remains neutral at 0.01, showing no dominant bullish or bearish sentiment, which indicates a balance in leverage and that larger volatility is still brewing.
Vest also noted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for futures continues to reflect ongoing selling pressure but has not led to a significant price collapse. This divergence between volume and price trends suggests potential strength, possibly laying the groundwork for liquidity-driven fluctuations before a sustainable rise occurs.
While new spot demand seems to be cooling, there are also signs that profit-taking is decreasing. The net realized profit and loss (NRPL) indicator shows no evidence of large-scale exits, and the adjusted SOPR remains well below the 1.10 threshold typically associated with market tops. These indicators suggest that investors still have confidence in the current market structure and are not in a hurry to lock in profits.
Macroeconomic conditions further support this view. Tuesday's U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing a "Goldilocks" backdrop favorable for risk assets. At the same time, consumer confidence rebounded after six consecutive months of decline, reflecting a broader warming of investor sentiment.
Bitcoin is currently in a neutral range, with the next key movement likely to occur after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Trader Titan of Crypto points out that the daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing, a technical indicator used to measure market volatility. When the Bollinger Bands narrow, it typically signals that a significant breakout or downturn is imminent. Analysts state:
Related: The White House releases long-awaited cryptocurrency regulatory recommendations report
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Makes Big Move After Fed Rate Decision, Coinbase Premium Turns Negative”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
