Bitcoin (BTC) volatility bulls may soon get their wish because seasonal patterns in Cboe's Volatility Index (VIX) suggest Wall Street is poised for increased turbulence.
The VIX measures the anticipated 30-day swings of the S&P 500 benchmark. Its historical pattern, according to Barchart.com, shows a frequent August surge, often preceded by a decline in July.
August stands out as having the highest average monthly gain, 13.68%, over the past 15 years, rising in 10 of those years, including a monumental 135% spike in 2015.
History repeating itself?
The VIX fell for a third straight month in July, extending the slide from April highs. It hit a five-month low of 14.92 on Friday, according to data source TradingView.
If history is a guide, this decline is likely setting the stage for the August boom in volatility and risk aversion on Wall Street. The VIX, which has been nicknamed the Fear Gauge, spikes higher when stock prices decline and falls when they rise.
In other words, the expected volatility boom on Wall Street could be marked by a stock market swoon, which could spill over into the bitcoin market.
Bitcoin tends to track the sentiment on Wall Street, especially in the technology stocks, fairly closely. BTC's implied volatility indices have developed a strong positive correlation with the VIX, signaling a steady evolution into VIX-like fear gauges. Since November, BTC's 30-day implied volatility indices have declined sharply, ending the positive correlation with the spot price.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
