Master Discusses Hot Topics:

We need to talk about tariffs, even though the market seems somewhat numb to trade negotiations now. After all, the psychological resilience has improved a bit after the heavy blows in March and April. But let's not forget, Trump is still in power.

Currently, the market is still willing to pay for TACO, it's just that the pain isn't as obvious anymore. The ideal scenario would be for the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico to each take a step back before August 1st, and for Trump to gain some benefits, leading to a win-win situation.

Another point is the cryptocurrency bill; the House of Representatives didn't even pass the most basic procedural motion. This isn't the usual script of a narrow victory. This time it was a 196:223 outright failure, with the Democratic Party not allowing a single vote, and 13 Republicans also defecting. What does this indicate?

It shows that Trump isn't as solid as he used to be. To put it plainly, if he wants to stir things up, he first needs to get his own house in order. The failure to pass this bill isn't just about the content being nonsensical; it also reflects severe internal strife. Once Trump deals with those dissenters, this issue will eventually be revisited.

Returning to the market, Bitcoin is just hovering around the 4-hour support line near 116K, and the bullish trend hasn't broken yet. Theoretically, this position should see a rebound. Looking at the spot premium, it has returned from negative values, and the whales haven't made any moves for now, indicating that no one is in a hurry to sell off.

As long as the whales don't act up, there's a chance for the price to push above 120K. However, in my personal view, the next test of the 116K support is likely to break. Then we might see a false rebound before retracing to the mid-track, around 111.7K, waiting for the trend line to catch up.

It's highly likely that a showdown will happen on Friday. In the short term, there might be a scary dip, but overall, the risk of a direct waterfall decline has been alleviated. The main issue now is that there are no bears left in the market; liquidity has dried up.

Although the bulls haven't collapsed, they also can't push up because no one is willing to short anymore. With the shorts nearly cleared out, how can the price soar? Someone needs to step in to take the risk. So, the current view is that there is a bearish outlook on a smaller scale, but still bullish on a larger scale. If there's a chance to pull up a bit, then do it, but it's not a reversal.

Now let's talk about Ethereum. The price is rising sharply, and the selling is even faster; the main players are not holding back. Every time there's a rise, it only lasts a few minutes before they start selling off, taking profits and running.

It's impossible not to feel envious, but to be fair, Ethereum's recent performance is indeed strong. The daily energy levels are quite sufficient; if it weren't for Bitcoin's drop yesterday afternoon, Ethereum might have already surged.

Currently, Ethereum is holding above 3000. If it can maintain above 3032, there shouldn't be any major issues. The next targets are slowly breaking through 3112 and 3152, heading towards 3224. If it stabilizes above 3100, the next move will be towards 4K. Don't laugh; this isn't unrealistic; it's supported by technical analysis.

The peak of a bull market isn't created by someone selling off; it's when everyone rushes to buy, and when no one is left to take the other side, it naturally peaks. The bottom of a bear market isn't found by someone buying; it's when there's continuous liquidation and bloodshed that it truly becomes a bottom.

Ultimately, the current situation is like spring turning into summer; even if a typhoon hits in between, it won't change the season, just a temporary cooling off. Do you understand?

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 119000

First Resistance Level: 118100

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 116500

First Support Level: 115200

The current support and resistance levels are basically consistent with yesterday, and the short-term is still within the range of 116.5K to 118.1K in a fluctuating structure. The short-term trend is still relying on the upward trend line, and a new upward trend line 2 has been added for future strategies.

The K-line is fluctuating near the 20-hour moving average, with local support in the range of 116.8K to 117K. It has returned to the upward channel, so the short-term rebound expectation can still be maintained.

However, if the trading volume is significantly insufficient during the rebound, it will face resistance in the 120MA and the 118.1K to 118.2K range, leading to another pullback.

The first resistance level of 118100 has failed twice in testing yesterday and today. If it can effectively break above this range with increased volume, it will open up further upward space, increasing the probability of a strong short-term surge.

Currently, the trading volume is low, and the price movement is still within a box range, with a low probability of a short-term breakout. If there is a breakout, attention should be paid to whether the volume increases.

If the first resistance is broken, the 119000 level will become an important threshold for short-term accelerated upward movement. However, it must be confirmed with a large bullish candle and increased volume, as we need to monitor the trading volume changes during the box range fluctuations.

Before a downward move, we should first check if there will still be support near the first upward trend line. If the price retraces to around 116500 and the lower shadow support is evident, it can still be viewed as a short-term rebound area.

The second support level of 115200 currently coincides with the 200MA, forming strong support, and can also be seen as a short-term phase bottom area. If the price drops to this level, it will present an ultra-short-term entry opportunity.

7.16 Master’s Band Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 105200-106000, Target: 108100-109000

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot their long positions, tomorrow they summarize their shorts, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger has a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat: Coin Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about K-lines, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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