Good evening, brothers!
Whenever there is a bear market, we often see many "sensational" news headlines, such as "The total market value of ×× stock evaporated by over a trillion yuan in two days." From the perspective of journalists, as long as they do not violate objective facts, the headlines they use must be eye-catching enough; phrases like "market value evaporated" are more likely to attract the attention of investors. But what is the real situation?
Let's consider a scenario. During the process of Tencent Holdings dropping from 400 HKD/share to 200 HKD/share, there are three types of participants in the market: first, the sellers, whose actual loss is 50%; second, the sitters, who only bear paper losses, and whether they truly gain or lose will only be known when they liquidate; third, the accumulators, who acquire low-priced chips from the sellers, and once Tencent Holdings' stock price reverses, they start making profits.
Buffett is right; one sale means one purchase. The losses of the sellers are actually the profits of the accumulators. Under Buffett's years of patient teaching, the vast majority of Berkshire's shareholders can remain calm during bear markets. By the end of the year, about 97% of shareholders choose to continue holding their stocks. In my view, when the stock market crashes, we must not become sellers; even if we don't have money to accumulate, we should at least sit still.
Just like when BTC drops from 60,000 to 20,000, for most people it is a crash, but for those looking to accumulate, it is an opportunity.
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Global fund managers are pouring into risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to several-month highs. However, Bank of America’s well-known analyst Michael Hartnett warns that this survey, which he calls a "famous contrarian indicator," may be triggering a clear sell signal.
The survey shows that investor risk appetite has increased at the fastest rate since 2001 over the past three months. In July, the allocation to U.S. stocks saw the largest increase since December, and the allocation to tech stocks recorded the largest three-month increase since 2009. At the same time, the cash level held by fund managers has dropped to 3.9%, falling below the 4.0% threshold, which is considered a "sell signal" according to Bank of America's trading rules.
BTC: On the 4-hour level, the price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a weakening short-term price.
On the daily level, the price has broken below the moving average support, showing a weak price trend.
In summary, support level at 116700, resistance level at 117200.
ETH: On the 4-hour level, the price continues to oscillate near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a support level at 2960 and a resistance level at 2990.
LTC: The price continues to stay below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, showing a weak price trend, with a support level at 92 and a resistance level at 94.
BCH: The price has broken below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a weak short-term market, the market is oversold, presenting a bottom-fishing opportunity, with a support level at 470 and a resistance level at 500.
That's all for now, good night!
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