Written by: Golem (@web3_golem)

Being a Bitcoin investor is really tough, living in fear of rising prices every day.

According to OKX market data, Bitcoin has risen today, breaking through $120,000 for the first time, setting a new historical high. Altcoins are also performing well; according to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization, only 15 tokens have declined in the past 24 hours, while the rest are in an upward trend. HBAR has increased by over 25% in the past 24 hours, and SUI has risen by over 12.18%. Major altcoins like ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP have also seen increases of 1-5% in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market have also seen significant gains, with OKC Cloud Chain rising over 30%, Xiong'an Technology up 18%, and Blueport Interactive increasing by over 10%.

Just by looking at the image above, one can tell that the situation is very favorable. However, unlike the previous breakthroughs of Bitcoin at $69,000 and $100,000, the market sentiment does not seem to exhibit much FOMO. Although social media is filled with various good news reports, community group chats are unusually quiet. Have people in the industry already taken profits and exited? Why is no one shouting about a takeoff this time?

Investors Numbed by Bitcoin's Rise

Even a small rebound in altcoins after an 80% retracement can excite trapped investors into calling for a bull market; however, with Bitcoin continuously reaching new highs, even if no investors are currently trapped, the relative value of “+%” is becoming increasingly insignificant, leading to numbness. Moreover, with the continuous positive developments in global cryptocurrency regulatory policies, an increase in publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin, and the compliance phase of stock tokenization, Bitcoin has seen three consecutive months of monthly gains since April 2025, with an increase of over 46% in three months.

The excitement threshold for investors is gradually rising, with expectations shifting more towards altcoins. Google Trends data also shows that public interest in Bitcoin searches is far below the levels seen during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.

The latest report from 10x Research also points out that Bitcoin's recent historical high is not driven by market speculation but stems from deeper macroeconomic changes. The increase in the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, massive deficit spending, and the upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the Trump working group are collectively reshaping the macro landscape. The report suggests that Bitcoin has transformed into a macro asset that hedges against unchecked fiscal spending, fundamentally changing its narrative logic. The FOMC meetings on July 22 and 30 could become key catalysts for redefining Bitcoin's role in the financial system.

Therefore, regarding Bitcoin's breakthrough of $120,000, there is no direct stimulus in the market; rather, it is the result of a series of previously favorable developments continuing to ferment. Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr. also provided reasons for the rise in July from an empirical perspective, stating, "Based on historical data from 2012 to 2025, July is one of the most reliable months for Bitcoin growth: 10 out of 14 cases (71%) showed positive returns. Additionally, October has the highest reliability, with a 77% rate of 'positive' months."

Altcoins Show Improvement but Fall Short of Expectations

Another significant reason affecting market sentiment may be that although altcoins have seen gains since July 11, they still fall short of investors' expectations. OKX market data shows that after a gap of 5 months, ETH has today risen above 3050 USDT (February 3), but sadly, the highest price of Bitcoin 5 months ago (February 3) was $102,500, meaning Bitcoin still has a 17% increase, while Ethereum has remained stagnant.

The trend of "Bitcoin standing alone, with altcoins not following or even declining" has been a topic of ongoing discussion among investors since 2024. At that time, Bitcoin had the support of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and institutional purchases, while altcoins were facing crises of VC trust, large unlocks crashing prices, and meme coins siphoning off speculative funds, making shorting altcoins a primary trading strategy. Thus, even until now, some investors still harbor reservations about altcoins and do not hold high hopes for the altcoin season.

However, the cryptocurrency market is ever-changing, and as investors, we should assess the situation and adjust accordingly. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a prediction in July regarding the approval probability of cryptocurrency spot ETFs by the end of 2025, indicating that the SEC may approve multiple altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, while DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are expected to have a 90% approval probability. SUI is projected to have a 60% approval probability, and Tron/TRX and Pengu are expected to have a 50% approval probability.

Additionally, various "altcoin" versions of micro-strategies are being established, and CZ even stated that at least over 30 teams want to launch public company projects related to the BNB treasury, indicating that altcoins will usher in an era supported by ETFs and institutional purchases.

Several KOLs have also expressed optimism about the upcoming altcoin season in July. LD Capital founder and "General E" Yi Lihua wrote that the altcoin season may have to wait until August or September after interest rate cuts are confirmed before the market truly experiences a liquidity overflow.

Crypto KOL Miles Deutscher commented on the recent PUMP, where $500 million was sold out in 12 minutes, stating that "this indicates that when the right opportunity arises, there is still a significant amount of liquid capital willing to participate. Altcoins are not 'dead'; they just need the right narrative." Further reading: PUMP sold out in 12 minutes, two scenarios after the opening, which one do you believe?.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also expressed that "the sentiment has shifted; Bitcoin has broken through historical highs with good trading volume; Ethereum is following closely and will outperform, and the altcoin season is approaching. The market believes Trump will take unexpected actions on tariff issues, and the Arthur Hayes family office fund Maelstrom has increased its bullish positions."

Of course, there are many signals indicating that the altcoin season is approaching, but listing them all is not as effective as the firm confidence that investors hold in their hearts. Hopefully, next time we can all shout together, "Altcoins take off!"

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