Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to new all-time highs above $123,000 and just logged its highest-ever weekly close at $119,500, following another record weekly close the week before. Year to date, BTC is now up around 30%, pulling ahead of gold which has gained approximately 27% during the same period.

According to analysis by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, bitcoin and gold are the top two performing assets so far in 2025. Bilello notes, “We’ve never seen these two in the number one and number two spots for any calendar year.”

However, there is a downside to having two largely unproductive assets as the year’s best performers. When bitcoin and gold lead the pack, it often signals investor anxiety or crisis conditions rather than confidence in the broader economy.

In theory, productive capital allocation should be rewarded, but these trends risk discouraging investment in the real economy. This distortion stems from artificially altered costs of capital.

Since the passage of the “big beautiful bill” on July 3, bitcoin has rallied by roughly $15,000. According to The Kobeissi Letter, bitcoin has entered “crisis mode,” with U.S. interest rates remaining structurally high.

Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) has fallen 11% over the past six months. In that same timeframe, tariffs have been delayed, U.S.-China trade negotiations have oscillated, and tensions have escalated with U.S. military strikes involving Iran. Additionally, the world's largest economy recorded a historic $316 billion budget deficit in May.

Taken together, these factors highlight a financial landscape shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal strain, and investors gravitating toward perceived safe havens like bitcoin and gold.

Read more: As Bitcoin Rushes Past $122K, What's Next for Ether, XRP, Dogecoin?

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