Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
After a 7-month consolidation period, ETH has finally climbed back above $3,000 today.
In this battle surrounding ETH, there is a voice that is firm and high-profile. From publicly calling for a buy to heavy options positions, he has almost single-handedly shouldered the flag for ETH bulls in the Chinese-speaking community. He is Yi Lihua, the founder of the secondary fund Trend Research, also known as "E Lihua" among crypto investors. Today, he has finally welcomed his moment in the spotlight—holding 182,000 ETH, with a floating profit exceeding $130 million, yet "not selling a single coin."
Why did he dare to publicly call for a buy at $1,450 for ETH and continue to increase his position? And why, after a $2 million loss in options "tuition," did he resolutely distance himself from "casino-style" trading?
From the "mindless betting" frenzy of 2017 to the heavy blow of the bear market in 2018, and then to the dividends of the bull market in 2020, Yi Lihua has deeply realized: "Trend recognition far surpasses short-term skills; less fussing around in a bull market is the way to go." This interview is not only a perspective on the holdings and strategy review of a top player but also a "trend investment declaration" and "bull market survival guide" based on practical experience that penetrates the market fog. The logic he has validated with real money is worth careful reading and reflection for every investor in the crypto wave.
1. Personal Experience: Trend Recognition and Cycle Judgment Far Exceed Short-Term Skills
Odaily Planet Daily: First, could you briefly introduce your professional background and what prompted you to enter the crypto industry? Yi Lihua: I was previously engaged in equity investment. In 2015, during the investment process, I came across crypto projects, and after gradually deepening my understanding, I officially entered the industry by participating in Bitcoin mining.
Odaily Planet Daily: How has your investment philosophy changed throughout your crypto career? Was there a particularly important experience that had a profound impact on your current strategy and judgment? Yi Lihua: First of all, during 2017, the investment logic was almost nonexistent; in the primary market, as long as you got a quota, you would invest, and in the secondary market, it was simply buying BTC and ETH, which led to heavy losses during the bear market of 2018-2019. The bull market of 2020-2021 brought rewards for mindless betting. These two cycles made us deeply aware that: trend recognition and cycle judgment are far more important than short-term skills.
At the same time, we also clarified one point: under the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, building an investment logic centered on trends is the key to traversing cycles. Most OGs only establish a foundational investment framework after repeated trial and error.
2. Ethereum Ecosystem and Core Holding Logic
Odaily Planet Daily: We know you have been very optimistic about Ethereum (ETH) recently. Now that ETH has returned to $3,000, how do you feel? Yi Lihua: Everything is as expected. If it weren't for the interference of Middle Eastern geopolitical issues, ETH should have reached $3,000 long ago.
Odaily Planet Daily: Can you publicly share your current ETH holdings? What is your cost? Do you have specific profit-taking ranges and plans? Yi Lihua: On-chain data is basically transparent, and we currently have no selling behavior. We believe the bull market has just begun, and as long as the trend is there, we will continue to hold. We will only consider selling when we judge that the bull market has ended.
Odaily Note: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin (@EmberCN), as the price of Ethereum (ETH) reaches the $3,000 mark, the ETH held by Trend Research has a floating profit of $130 million. Data shows that Trend Research has cumulatively purchased and held 182,000 ETH, with an average price of about $2,250.
Odaily Planet Daily: Because you have been calling for a buy on ETH, we see that some people on Twitter jokingly refer to you as "E Lihua." What do you think of this nickname? Do you mind it? Is there anything you want to respond to? Yi Lihua: The reason we publicly called for a buy is that when ETH was at $1,450, we believed it was a historic opportunity, and of course, we wanted to share it with everyone. We have indeed been continuously buying, aligning our words with actions.
The nickname "E Lihua" also shows that people are paying attention to ETH. Whether it's joking or questioning, it's all just dinner table talk; I don't mind. I have also let go of those who wrote negative articles about me back then. The bull market has come, and it's most important for everyone to win together.
Odaily Planet Daily: In June, you publicly held nearly 100,000 ETH call options for the end of the month, with a premium of $2 million. However, the market conditions that month were not satisfactory. How do you view this investment? Do you have any reflections or subsequent strategy adjustments? Yi Lihua: It was indeed a mistake worth reflecting on. We were too eager to bet on ETH reaching $3,000, overlooking the black swan risk. At that time, the market situation was particularly good, and our paper profits were also decent, so we wanted to place another bet, but the Middle Eastern war disrupted the rhythm. This also reminds us again: it is very difficult for any professional team to win money in a "casino" for a long time.
Therefore, we have also become more determined in our belief in trend investing, avoiding participation in such high-risk behaviors. This is also what I want to express: both primary investment and options trading actually belong to uncertain risk behaviors; only trend investing is the fair path that we believe can lead to lasting success.
Odaily Planet Daily: Besides firmly holding ETH, you have also expressed optimism about Ethereum ecosystem projects like UNI and AAVE multiple times. Have you allocated positions in these? What is the approximate proportion? Yi Lihua: We are generally optimistic about the entire ETH ecosystem. As leading projects, UNI and AAVE naturally have allocations, currently accounting for about 20% of the overall position. We hope that the leading projects in the ecosystem can outperform ETH, and in the future, we will adjust based on market performance and timing.
Odaily Planet Daily: Your optimism about these altcoins is based on the correlation logic of ETH's rise, or do you value their own cash flow and value capture ability? Additionally, emerging platforms like Hyperliquid have also performed well recently. What are your thoughts? Will you consider investing? Yi Lihua: It is mainly based on the trend judgment of ETH for ecological linkage allocation. In the face of trends, any analysis is meaningless. We prefer to only buy the leaders; even the leaders in the meme track will be allocated. Therefore, our project investment decisions are entirely based on our long-term optimism about ETH. With ETH returning to $3,000, the industry bull market is about to return, and all quality projects should rise, but our energy is limited, and we cannot cover everything.
3. Positioning and Strategy of LD Capital and Trend Research
Odaily Planet Daily: As we all know, you are the founder of LD Capital, but in the past year, we have seen you focus more on the development of Trend Research. What are the differences in operation and positioning between the two? What is the meaning and vision behind the name Trend Research?
Yi Lihua: LD Capital is a well-established investment institution focused on the crypto primary market, having invested in over 200 projects in the past 8 years, mainly focusing on team support, ecosystem incubation, and early strategic investment.
Trend Research, on the other hand, is an investment fund focused on the secondary market. Due to different positioning, team differences, and fund structures, it has become a relatively independent brand name and development goal. The reason for naming it "Trend" is that I firmly believe that trend investing is the most replicable and fair long-term path. In fact, Buffett and Duan Yongping are also typical representatives of trend investing. We hope to build Trend Research into a sustainable, cross-cycle evergreen fund that can extend this concept in both the crypto and stock markets. We will continue to enhance our investment research capabilities and investment strategies.
Odaily Planet Daily: Is the funding for Trend Research sourced from your own funds or are there external investors involved? Can you disclose the current size of the funds you manage? Yi Lihua: It is mostly team-owned funds. Currently, the on-chain data is quite transparent. We also hope to continuously expand the team and scale under suitable circumstances. We believe that establishing a foundational investment logic is the most important. The partners in our team have over 10 years of experience in crypto investment and trading, so we look forward to steady growth step by step.
Odaily Planet Daily: In terms of specific strategy, does Trend Research prefer long-term value investing or focus more on short-term trend grasping? Where is the current funding focus mainly? Yi Lihua: We primarily focus on trend-driven value investing, with short-term strategies only involving small-scale adjustments or opportunistic bets. As you can see, we have been continuously increasing our positions without any selling behavior. At certain times, we may reduce borrowing leverage (which is very low risk).
Currently, our focus remains in the crypto industry, and we will further expand into stocks and other categories in the future. We are researching opportunities in the crypto-stock track, and whether to expand will depend on the matching of team capabilities and market opportunities.
Odaily Planet Daily: This year, new projects have generally lacked support, and price performance has not met expectations. How have the primary projects previously invested in by LD Capital performed? Has this prompted you to reassess the layout logic of the primary market? Will you continue to participate in primary projects in the future?
Yi Lihua: Indeed, like most institutions, we have also faced significant pressure in the primary market. Most projects have performed very poorly, which is a direct reason for our shift to secondary investments. However, we are using our own funds, while others are LPs, so I don't know whether to say it's a blessing or a curse.
To be honest, we have not found a clear foundational logic for large-scale primary investments at this time. Investing in the primary market is a high-risk behavior, and we have no means to constrain project parties. Asian funds are also completely at a disadvantage in terms of pricing power and exit liquidity, which makes us very cautious about primary investments now. However, if it is a founder we are particularly familiar with and optimistic about, we will continue to increase our investments in the primary market. Recently, we have also started investing in crypto-stock companies while helping quality primary projects with good services to accelerate; this is our current strategy.
4. AI Narrative, Macroeconomics, and Market Structure
Odaily Planet Daily: You once mentioned that the capital volume on Wall Street in crypto investment is comparable to that of AI narratives, while also pointing out that AI has bubbles. Are you referring to bubbles in the crypto field or in the broader tech sector? How do you view the AI Agent track in the crypto field? Yi Lihua: AI is the main engine of the current US stock bull market, but whether it can support a market value of trillions in the long term is still debatable. I believe there is nothing wrong with AI; it is one of the most important development directions for humanity in the future.
In the crypto space, there haven't been any real breakthroughs in AI+Crypto projects yet. We look forward to the emergence of projects with genuine technological innovation and practical applications in the future, but we are still in the early stages.
Odaily Planet Daily: What do you think about the capital siphoning effect under Bitcoin's "excess consensus"? Are altcoins finding it difficult to attract capital rotation because of this? Does the traditional concept of "altcoin season" still exist? Yi Lihua: Bitcoin is currently the core asset of the institutional bull market, with firms like BlackRock and MicroStrategy only buying BTC, thus reinforcing the consensus. Altcoins, on the other hand, generally face issues of narrative fatigue and oversupply, making it difficult for their value to be realized.
In the future, only a few altcoins that truly possess technological or value support will have the opportunity for rotation. Just like in the US stock market, most "zombie stocks" no longer have liquidity or pricing power.
Odaily Planet Daily: Recently, security tokenization has become very popular, with major exchanges like Bybit and Kraken entering the blue-chip US stock token trading business. What is your view on the market prospects of security tokenization? Will it further compress the liquidity and trading space for altcoins? Yi Lihua: I believe this is a positive development. Most Web3 users will only trade leading coins and star stocks, and there is likely very little interest in other categories. Traditional stock investors may enter a new market through tokenization channels. This represents an incremental opportunity for the crypto market, rather than a zero-sum game.
Odaily Planet Daily: With the GENUIS Act making significant progress, it seems that there has been a substantial breakthrough in stablecoin regulation. Do you think this policy development will truly bring in incremental funds? Will its impact be short-term market fluctuations or long-term structural positioning by institutions?
Yi Lihua: Of course, favorable crypto policies are an important factor in this bull market. Without friendly crypto policies, massive traditional capital cannot smoothly and compliantly enter the crypto industry, which will bring in a lot of funds and a long-term bull market foundation. This is also a core reason why we are optimistic about this bull market.
Odaily Planet Daily: Many opinions suggest that the crypto industry is transitioning from a "technological dividend period" to a "regulatory dividend period," or even a "compliance arbitrage period." Do you agree with this assessment? Will institutional players gradually replace retail investors as the main pricing force?
Yi Lihua: This is an inevitable trend. Just like in the US stock market, pricing power will eventually return to institutions. The only choice for retail investors is to follow Wall Street and large institutions closely and not trade against the trend. Once institutions enter the market, the certainty will be higher.
5. Trend Judgment and Investment Advice
Odaily Planet Daily: At this point in time, how do you view the overall trend of the crypto market in the next 1-2 years? What macro variables or regulatory policies could become key variables?
Yi Lihua: Supported by favorable policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, the crypto bull market is expected to continue. Of course, there will be many black swan events and normal fluctuations in between, but currently, there are no significant signals of a trend reversal. When a truly major variable appears, we will make an analysis and judgment immediately.
Odaily Planet Daily: As a veteran in the crypto industry, what advice do you have for ordinary investors in the current environment? Yi Lihua: I have given many suggestions on Twitter, and everyone can take a look. The most important and fair choice for everyone is trend investing. In the face of a bull market, less fussing around is the best strategy. Avoid heavy investments in primary markets and steer clear of over-leveraged contracts.
Holding 182,000 Ethereum (ETH) with a floating profit exceeding $130 million yet "not selling a single share"! Veteran crypto investor Yi Lihua (jokingly referred to as "E Lihua" in the community) not only generously shared shocking holding data in a recent interview but also deeply revealed his core principles of "trend investing" that have helped him navigate through bull and bear markets. From the frenzy of "mindless betting" in 2017 to the heavy blow of the bear market in 2018, and then to the dividends of the bull market in 2020, he has gained profound insights through hard-earned lessons: "Trend recognition far surpasses short-term skills; less fussing around in a bull market is the way to go." Why did he dare to publicly call for a buy and continue to increase his position when ETH was at $1,450? And why, after a $2 million loss in options "tuition," did he resolutely distance himself from "casino-style" trading? Faced with the capital siphoning effect of Bitcoin, the weakness of altcoins, and the cold winter of the primary market, how does he position himself? Why does he assert that the "era of institutional pricing power" has arrived, and that retail investors can only "follow Wall Street closely"? More importantly, how does he view the profound impact of the current "regulatory dividend period" on the bull market? This interview is not only a perspective on the holdings and strategy review of a top player but also a "trend investment declaration" and "bull market survival guide" based on practical experience that penetrates the market fog. The logic Yi Lihua has validated with real money is worth careful reading and reflection for every investor in the crypto wave.
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