Written by: Jose Antonio Lanz, Guillermo Jimenez

Compiled and Organized by: BitpushNews

Bitcoin continues to strongly break through key resistance, standing at a historical high of $116,000. This breakout is injecting new momentum into the market, and the focus of traders is on how high it will go next. This article will analyze the situation from a technical chart perspective.

Macroeconomic Background

As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index close at historical highs for the third time in four trading days, and gold futures rise above $3,370 per ounce, risk assets are receiving broad buying support as the Federal Reserve maintains a patient stance on monetary policy.

The upward momentum of Bitcoin is also resonating with the explosive U.S. employment data—June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 (expected 110,000). Although the strong employment data initially caused Bitcoin to drop below $109,000 due to rate hike concerns, the market quickly absorbed the selling pressure and pushed it to a new local high.

Institutional adoption remains a core driving force. In July, cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $50 billion. This sustained institutional buying provides crucial support for any pullbacks and validates Bitcoin's evolution from a speculative asset to a portfolio allocation asset.

The synergy of technical breakthroughs and institutional accumulation has traders speculating: after crossing the last barrier to the unknown, where will Bitcoin go next?

Bitcoin Chart: Double Breakout Aiming at Final Resistance

Bitcoin recently surged to $113,000, marking the opening of a new historical high area, which is also a decisive technical breakthrough against two patterns that had suppressed prices for weeks.

The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has cleanly broken through a symmetrical triangle pattern, while the daily chart shows smaller fluctuations, with bullish momentum slightly lacking. In this type of pattern, this is expected, but such a long candlestick leaves almost no doubt. The breakout confirmation is clear—enough to turn almost all key indicators bullish within the daily timeframe.

Source: TradingView

On the 4-hour chart, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 27. This typically confirms a trending market. The ADX measures trend strength without considering direction, and when it breaks above 25, it signals momentum traders that a sustainable trend is forming, often triggering systematic buying in trend-following strategies.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 75 indicates that Bitcoin has entered the overbought territory. One might consider the RSI as a market thermometer—when the reading is too high, it often signals a cooling demand. The current situation may suggest an impending adjustment after a significant rise. However, it should be noted that Bitcoin has maintained bullish momentum multiple times at higher RSI levels.

The squeezing momentum indicator on the daily chart shows a "close" state, indicating that the recent compressed market's volatility aligns with previous analytical expectations. This suggests that the initial breakout has been realized, and traders should prepare for either a continuation of the rise or consolidation at current levels.

Overall, the price is releasing bullish signals. Although the probability of a continued upward trend is high, given that the pullback candlesticks generally show minor fluctuations, adjustments are not expected to threaten the trend.

The daily chart also displays a bullish structure: Bitcoin has broken free from the descending bearish channel that has suppressed prices since the May high (marked by the yellow line in the above image). It seems to be forming a bullish support line (marked by the white line in the above image), referencing the April pullback low and the late June low. If confirmed, Bitcoin may oscillate around this support line, maintaining bullish momentum and making $110,000 a new support level before the end of the month.

The daily RSI reports 67, indicating healthy momentum and not yet reaching the overbought territory above 70—suggesting further upward space. This reading informs traders that buying pressure remains strong but has not yet reached the extreme levels that typically indicate an adjustment.

The daily ADX reports 12, indicating that the trend is still developing and has not yet reached a level that can be defined as a clear pattern—short-term charts often contain a lot of noise. Although it is below the key threshold of 25 that confirms strong directional movement, low readings after a breakout often signal calm before acceleration. Traders interpret this as an accumulation phase before the next impulsive rise.

Moving average analysis shows that Bitcoin is steadily above the 50-period and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMA) across multiple timeframes. The widening gap between these moving averages (known as moving average divergence) typically indicates a strong trend state and acts as dynamic support during pullbacks.

Key Price Levels

• Immediate Support: $110,197 (breakout retest level)
• Strong Support Range: $105,000 - $108,700 (support line)
• Expected Resistance: $115,000 (based on triangle breakout measured target and Fibonacci extension)

Bitcoin Market Outlook

The synergy of technical breakthroughs, institutional capital inflows, and a favorable macro environment is driving Bitcoin to potentially continue its bullish trend after breaking historical resistance. However, traders who prefer technical analysis should monitor whether the daily ADX can break above 25 to confirm trend strength, while also being cautious of RSI divergence when new highs fail.

Looking at a broader dimension, July may still see significant volatility for Bitcoin: policies such as the Trump administration's "Great American Rescue Plan" could expand the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion—historically beneficial for scarce assets like BTC. Additionally, the deadline for the White House's cryptocurrency executive order report on July 22 is approaching, which may involve updates to the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves and could serve as a potential catalyst.

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