Key Points:
Despite the inflow of spot ETFs and rising TVL data, the ETH futures and options market still shows a hesitant attitude.
The growth of Layer-2 and reduced fees have not translated into increased demand for ETH or sustained price momentum.
Ethereum (ETH) price rose 13.5% in two days, reaching $3000 on Thursday, but traders remain skeptical about its ability to maintain that level. Despite recent bullish momentum, the ETH derivatives market shows a lack of confidence, raising doubts among traders about further upside potential.
The monthly futures premium for ETH is currently at 5%, on the edge of neutral and bearish territory. While this is an improvement from the previous week's 3.5% premium, the last significant bullish signal was on January 23, when ETH traded above $3300. Professional traders are now less pessimistic, but they are still far from confident about sustained price increases.
ETH is still down 41% from its all-time high in November 2021, which partly explains the cautious outlook. More importantly, the decline in Ethereum network fees has reduced the rate of ETH burn. Since Ethereum's built-in burn mechanism relies on network activity, a decrease in usage means more ETH remains in circulation, putting downward pressure on the price.
According to Nansen data, Ethereum network fees have decreased by 22% over the past 30 days to $34.8 million. Although this trend has affected most areas of the blockchain industry, ETH investors are particularly disappointed. This is because the increase in total locked value (TVL) has not translated into higher demand for ETH itself.
As of Thursday, the TVL on the Ethereum network has risen from $50 billion three months ago to $73 billion. However, the trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) has dropped to a nine-month low. Even though the previous meme coin frenzy was unsustainable, many ETH investors still hope that the increased activity can last longer.
Ethereum's Layer-2 ecosystem has performed better than expected, generating $58.6 billion in DEX trading volume over the past 30 days. However, initiatives to reduce rollup fees through data blocks have not meaningfully boosted demand for ETH.
In contrast, Solana's TVL is 86% lower than Ethereum's but has generated $25.3 million in network fees. Tron’s 30-day fees are also 60% higher than Ethereum's.
To determine whether this lack of confidence is specific to futures, it is helpful to look at the options market. When traders seek upside exposure through call options, the delta skew typically drops below the neutral -5% to +5% range. Conversely, demand for downside protection pushes this metric higher.
Currently, the ETH options skew is at -3%, indicating a balance of interest between bullish and bearish strategies. This situation has persisted for four weeks, showing improvement from the previous week's +1% reading.
The recent rise in ETH prices appears to be primarily driven by $468 million in net inflows into U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over four days. Other supporting factors include ShapLink Gaming (SBET) and Bit Digital (BTBT) purchasing ETH as part of their treasury strategies.
However, it remains unclear whether institutional demand will continue. Currently, ETH derivatives reflect limited confidence in a sustained rebound.
Related: NFT sales reach $2.8 billion in the first half of 2025, while trading volume declines significantly.
This article is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Maximalists Scream for $3K, But Data Shows Pro Ether Traders Cautiously Positioned”
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