In the midst of strategizing, we can win from a thousand miles away. Hello everyone, I am Lin Chao, a global financial market observer, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, bringing you the most in-depth trading information analysis and technical teaching.
Recently, the back-and-forth between Trump and Musk has frequently trended on social media. Lin Chao has also received many private messages from fans asking whether their conflict will affect the crypto market. Personally, Lin Chao does not wish to express his views on this matter publicly. Rather than their conflict, Lin Chao is more concerned about the users who previously held DOGE and whether their assets will depreciate.
On July 3, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, pushed by President Trump, with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against. This bill has been controversial due to its cuts to federal aid, increase in long-term debt, and tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations. Two Republican representatives voted against the bill. However, it had already been passed by the Senate on July 1. On July 5, President Trump officially signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, making it effective. This news quickly ignited Musk's anger, and that day Musk announced the establishment of the American Party, aiming to become a third party apart from the Democratic and Republican parties.
I believe everyone has seen many analyses regarding the news about Trump and Musk on various platforms, so Lin Chao will not comment further on that. Today, we will not discuss politics but rather talk about DOGE, which is closely connected to Musk.
As we all know, the connection between DOGE and Musk can be traced back to 2020. On March 3, 2020, Musk tweeted a post that, while not entirely related to cryptocurrency, featured a dog meme with the title "Dogs rock." He later tweeted, "They have the best coin," clearly referring to Dogecoin. From that point on, Musk and DOGE became linked in the public media. Subsequently, during the bull market of 2021, the price of DOGE skyrocketed from $0.002 to a peak of $0.74, an astonishing increase of 350 times. What does a 350-fold increase mean? If someone had invested $10,000 in DOGE at that time, they could have made $3,500,000 within two months, achieving financial freedom.
It was also from that time that various hundred-fold coins began to emerge in the crypto space. In fact, DOGE can be considered one of the pioneers. However, what truly concerns Lin Chao is not the rise in DOGE's price after Musk endorsed it, but rather that Musk did not sever ties with DOGE after its explosive growth. Regardless of whether the price later rose or fell, he consistently supported it and never backed down. Even after entering politics, he named a new government efficiency department "DOGE."
Thus, it is an open secret that Musk is the driving force behind DOGE. We can also see this from the price fluctuations; before Trump took office, with Musk's strong support, DOGE rose from $0.1 to $0.48, nearly a fivefold increase. After Trump took office, retail investors who had taken over were still hoping for further doubling, but DOGE fell back to around $0.2. Users who have been following Lin Chao for a long time know that he had already warned everyone multiple times to clear their DOGE holdings before Trump took office. I believe that even now, there are still many users holding DOGE. Now that Musk has announced the establishment of the American Party, can DOGE still expect a new surge?
Optimists in the market believe that Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is a strong challenge to Trump, because as Musk said, the U.S. can only choose between the Democratic and Republican parties, one being extremely left and the other extremely right. In reality, 70% of people are moderates, not so extreme. This 70% appears to provide enough space for him to operate, and even if he does not run for president, securing a few seats in the Senate and House of Representatives should not be a problem. Moreover, DOGE itself, along with Sol, XRP, and ADA, has a 90% chance of being approved for a spot ETF in October. Once approved, increased liquidity and capital inflow will naturally lead to a rise in price.
Lin Chao's Summary
However, everyone should know that according to U.S. law, the establishment of a party eligible to participate in elections requires a complex certification process. First, a party meeting or convention must be held to elect temporary officials, etc. Although Musk has posted, "When and where should we hold the first convention of the American Party?" the truth is that the registration documents for the American Party are fake and have already been reported to the Federal Election Commission, indicating that the American Party is still in the planning stage.
Historically, it has been difficult for a "third party" in the U.S. to achieve political success. Businessman Ross Perot received nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election but failed to win a single electoral vote. Ralph Nader was labeled a "spoiler" in the 2000 election. The most recent attempt by Chinese-American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang to establish the Forward Party gained attention but struggled to gain traction.
Looking back at DOGE's application for an ETF, this matter originated during the honeymoon period between Musk and Trump, and now, with their relationship so strained, Lin Chao believes that the listing of DOGE's ETF will also be delayed due to their conflict. In contrast, coins like SOL and XRP, which have little political connection, are more likely to be pushed to the forefront by capital, as a lack of political stance is the attitude that capital should have.
From a technical perspective on DOGE's daily chart, a periodic bottom formation has already formed, and the price has been hovering near the support level, leaving little room for further decline. Each time it dips near $0.13, there is strong buying support. In the short term, DOGE will continue to oscillate upward near the support line, but it will not experience explosive growth. If significant negative news arises, the price could break through the support and even drop below $0.1. However, Lin Chao believes that for the price to return above $0.3 will be a very long process. Users holding DOGE at high prices should not sit idly by; they can actually try to reduce losses through other tools and methods during the oscillation period, and when the price stabilizes and rises, they can profit through long-term holding. If anyone is unsure about position management or entry timing, they can also message Lin Chao, and he will respond upon seeing it.
The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and making good asset allocations are essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never just the gains and losses of a single pass or the profits and losses of a moment, but rather careful planning before action and knowing when to stop to gain.
This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The crypto market is risky; investment requires caution!
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