Uweb Live Stream Episode 175, hosted by Principal Jianing, teamed up with Chloe from Huobi Research to delve into "Must-Watch Data Weekly Report on Web3: Innovations in the Market After DeFi Deregulation." The guests analyzed new market trends and potential opportunities, covering topics from the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks, stablecoin sectors, to the integration of DeFi and traditional finance, providing investors with a clear analytical framework. This episode is packed with valuable insights, combining on-chain data, macro policies, and institutional dynamics to reveal the latest developments in the Web3 market. Below is a comprehensive summary of the discussion to help you grasp the market pulse!

Must-Watch Data Weekly Report on Web3

Teacher Shao Feng provided a detailed interpretation of the "Uweb Web3 Must-Watch Data Weekly Report" for the period from June 30 to July 7, focusing on two major events impacting the market: the strong U.S. employment data breaking the expectation of a rate cut in July, and the activation of 80,000 bitcoins (approximately $8 billion) by ancient whales from 2011. Through on-chain data analysis, he revealed the current market situation and potential trends.

Market Overview:

• Bitcoin prices remained stable, with reduced volatility, entering a critical turning point, akin to "the calm before the storm." Ethereum and other top 100 altcoins saw slight increases, with the overall market being subdued.
• On-chain data indicates a high concentration of Bitcoin, with 26% of high-positioned locked chips, urgently needing a new turnover range to drive a market breakthrough.

Impact of Ancient Whales:

• The accumulation of 80,000 bitcoins (generated in 2011, with a cost of less than $1) disrupted on-chain data, creating a false impression of "distribution" among long-term holders. After removing the interference, long-term holders accumulated 23,000 BTC, showing no signs of selling, and the main upward wave has not yet ended.
• The on-chain liquidation curve became ineffective due to changes in whale UTXOs, with abnormal profit-taking data, necessitating observation of next week's trends. The UTXO energy band shows abnormal chip accumulation, with support levels rising, but it remains unclear whether the accumulation involves OTC transactions.

Global Momentum and Sentiment:

• Investor sentiment in Asia is warming up, dominating short-term momentum; Europe is experiencing low sentiment, and confidence in the Americas is unstable, with significant investor divergence and no clear top signals in the short term.
• The on-chain illusion research instrument shows an average profit rate of 52%, at a high level, requiring a correction or consolidation to allow space for the subsequent main upward wave. A drop below the $98,000 breakeven line could trigger a sharp decline for short-term holders.

Liquidity and ETF Data:

• The total market capitalization of stablecoins continues to rise, reflecting strong market demand for purchasing coins, with bullish sentiment unchanged. The inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has decreased, slightly weakening momentum, but still supports a bullish outlook in the short term.
• Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $760 million this week (over four trading days, with three days of inflow and one day of outflow), slightly down from last week, but institutional confidence remains.

Macroeconomic Data Outlook:

• Strong U.S. employment data has broken the expectation of a rate cut in July, shifting market focus to the September meeting, with liquidity improvement hindered. The greed and fear index remains at 41 (moderately fearful), indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
• Next week's CPI inflation data and employment figures will dominate market fluctuations and require close attention.

Shao Feng emphasized that the whale accumulation is a "smoke screen" in the data; after removing the interference, the market shows no signs of selling, and the cumulative trend continues, indicating that the bull market cycle still exists. He advised investors to be cautious of short-term liquidity risks and to pay attention to next week's on-chain data and macro indicators (such as CPI) to determine whether to break through the highs or fall below key support levels, seizing left-side entry opportunities. All analyses are for academic exchange and do not constitute investment advice.

What Potential Bullish and Bearish Factors Could Arise in the Second Half of the Year?

Market Status: Internal Cold and External Hot with a Siege Effect

Principal Jianing: The Web3 industry has undergone significant changes recently, presenting an "internal cold and external hot" state. How do you view the current market phase? Is Bitcoin brewing a new round of upward momentum or nearing its end? Where might the short-term high point be?

Chloe: The current Web3 market exhibits a "siege effect" of internal cold and external hot, with high media and social platform activity externally, but low trading volume and liquidity internally, leaving participants somewhat confused. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the industry relies on external capital and innovation for growth. Compliance channels (such as the Genius Act and Hong Kong stablecoin regulations) and RWA exploration inject vitality into the market. Although RWA projects have their ups and downs, their attempts at compliance pave new paths for the industry, leading to an overall positive outlook. In the short term, policies (such as the potential passage of the Genius Act by the end of August) may drive Bitcoin to break through $110,000, but caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback.

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies: Merida Act and Liquidity

Principal Jianing: How do macro factors such as the Merida Act, interest rate cut policies, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasury rates affect the market? What are the short-term and long-term trends?

Chloe: The Merida Act addresses the debt ceiling, and the replenishment of the TGA balance in August will enhance liquidity, providing short-term support for Bitcoin at high levels, but a pullback may occur in September, so high leverage should be avoided. The likelihood of a rate cut in July is low, requiring more event-driven upward movements. The Trump administration's weak dollar policy and the promotion of stablecoins (such as the Genius Act) enhance the dollar's penetration, which is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The Federal Reserve's policies are uncertain due to political factors (such as Powell's term), necessitating attention to the Treasury's easing measures and Treasury buyback dynamics.

Institutional Entry and Compliance Channels: The Rise of New Buyers

Principal Jianing: Which institutions are positioning themselves in Bitcoin? How is the situation for institutional entry after compliance channels have opened?

Chloe: Bitcoin buying has strengthened, with institutions being the core driving force. After the repeal of the SAB 121 Act, banks can hold Bitcoin compliantly, and listed companies (such as those in the U.S., Hong Kong, and South Korea) have increased their freedom to accumulate, with stock prices rising due to "Bitcoin reserves." Institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have established crypto departments, and DeFi projects (such as Maple Finance and MakerDAO's Spark) provide high yields through lending and wealth management, reaching a scale of $3 billion, forming an "institutional version of DeFi Summer," attracting capital inflows.

Stablecoins and RWA: The Birth of Wealth Opportunities

Principal Jianing: After the implementation of the Genius Act, what special applications will stablecoins and RWA bring? How do they relate to Web3 investment and payment scenarios?

Chloe: The Genius Act allows non-U.S. institutions to issue dollar stablecoins, similar to an offshore dollar system, expanding penetration in high-inflation regions (such as South America and Africa). Stablecoin payments are highly efficient, combined with DeFi to offer annualized returns of over 10%, attracting both institutions and retail investors. RWA projects assist corporate financing through compliance innovations (such as Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations), with potential for 5-10x project growth in the short term, while long-term leaders have immense potential, driving wealth opportunities in Web3 through payment scenarios.

Political Risks: Uncertainty of the Midterm Elections

Principal Jianing: How do the Trump administration's policies, macro issues, and midterm elections affect the bull-bear cycle? What will the market look like in 2026-2027?

Chloe: The 2026 midterm elections are a significant risk point; Trump's excessive support for Web3 may become a target for political attacks. If policies are repealed due to party changes, it will shake the industry. Currently, the Republican-led crypto-friendly policies (such as ETFs and stablecoin legislation) are driving buying, but the success of conservative parties in Australia and Canada shows global policy divergence. Investors need to pay attention to policy stability to avoid pullbacks caused by political risks, while the long-term trend still relies on compliance channels and capital inflows.

DeFi Innovations: Integration of Institutions and Payment Scenarios

Principal Jianing: After the repeal of the SAB 12b1 Act, what compliance innovations are emerging in DeFi? What changes will occur after the launch of the Trump family's World Liberty project?

Chloe: With the repeal of the SAB 121 Act, DeFi is ushering in new opportunities, allowing institutions to participate in lending and wealth management through compliance channels. Maple Finance collaborates with investment banks to provide Bitcoin-collateralized loans for listed companies, reaching a scale of $3 billion. Stablecoin payments combined with DeFi (such as the Plasma public chain) support small transactions with no gas fees and large transactions, suitable for cross-border payments and supply chain finance. In the future, we may see the emergence of "Crypto banks," accelerating the large-scale adoption of DeFi, with institutions and payment scenarios merging.

Innovations in the Market After DeFi Deregulation

Opportunities and Essence of Cryptocurrency-Stock Correlation

Cryptocurrency-stock correlation has become a hot topic in the recent integration of DeFi and traditional finance, with the core being the tokenization of securities and the securitization of tokens. The guests pointed out that the essence of cryptocurrency-stock correlation is similar to "whale" operations in the crypto market; for example, Sharp Link is operated by Consensus, and stock price increases depend on the strength and willingness of the project party to drive the price. The cost of listing on NASDAQ is relatively low (a few million dollars), far below the listing fees of some exchanges (such as Upbit, which requires several million dollars). Quality project parties achieve compliance and liquidity through reverse mergers, while inferior projects may choose cryptocurrency-stock correlation due to an inability to afford listing fees, posing a risk of pitfalls. In the future, cryptocurrency-stock correlation may further develop through price mapping and business empowerment, but currently, it remains primarily speculative in the short term, necessitating attention to the project party's background and operational capabilities.

Market Pathways and Compliance Advantages of Cryptocurrency-Stock Correlation

Cryptocurrency-stock correlation provides project parties with a low-cost compliance pathway. The guests mentioned that the NASDAQ registration system has low costs, making it more attractive compared to the high listing fees of certain exchanges. Project parties can achieve compliance and liquidity through reverse mergers, mapping cryptocurrency prices to stock prices, and empowering businesses in the future. For example, companies switching between A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and NASDAQ, ultimately returning to A-shares, is a common strategy. Cryptocurrency-stock correlation not only reduces compliance costs but also empowers tokens through securitization, creating liquidity and brand value. The guests believe this trend may bring new opportunities, but caution is advised regarding project quality and operational risks, with potential for more innovative models in the future.

Participants and Schools of Thought in Cryptocurrency-Stock Correlation

Participants in cryptocurrency-stock correlation can be divided into three categories: first, those purchasing Bitcoin through bond issuance, such as MicroStrategy; second, those investing in other tokens through "XX Strategy" (such as BNB Strategy, TRX Strategy), relying on the project party's background (such as Consensus); third, crypto project parties directly listing on NASDAQ for liquidity and compliance. The guests emphasized that ordinary investors find it difficult to seize Bitcoin-related opportunities due to rapid changes in news, while "XX Strategy" requires attention to the project party's operational motivation. NASDAQ is exploring 24/7 trading combined with blockchain technology, which may eliminate arbitrage opportunities between cryptocurrency and stock prices, fostering a more natural correlation model. Innovative models are worth paying attention to, but cautious operation is necessary.

Future Trends of Stablecoins and DeFi Sectors

Regarding stablecoins and the DeFi sector, the guests believe its future depends on the participating entities and the differences between offshore and onshore markets. Banks, tech companies, and blockchain projects are all positioning themselves in stablecoins, but the dominant force has yet to be clarified. Traditional finance may leverage compliance as an advantage, while blockchain projects emphasize decentralization and innovation. The offshore market (such as dollar stablecoins) and the onshore market (such as digital RMB) have different approaches, with the former focusing more on global liquidity and the latter being subject to regulatory constraints. The guests pointed out that the differences in the implementation of stablecoins lie in compliance and application scenarios, with a potential for hybrid development in the future, necessitating observation of the degree of entry by banks and tech companies and changes in regulatory policies.

The discussion focused on the innovative opportunities of cryptocurrency-stock correlation and stablecoins. Cryptocurrency-stock correlation achieves compliance and liquidity through low-cost listings, but caution is needed regarding project quality and operational risks, with potential for technological innovations (such as 24/7 trading) in the future. The competition in the stablecoin sector is fierce, with banks, tech companies, and blockchain projects each having their advantages, and the differences between offshore and onshore markets will influence development paths. The overall trend points towards a deep integration of DeFi and traditional finance, with opportunities and risks coexisting.

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