Key Points:
80% of Bitcoin is currently being held long-term, which is a historical signal of an impending market recovery.
Breaking through the resistance level of $110,000 could lead to increased volatility, with some traders expecting prices to rise to $130,000.
The price of BTC has previously risen by as much as 84% when the supply of BTC held by long-term holders exceeded 80%. A similar pattern is now unfolding, suggesting an intensification of supply shocks and the potential for BTC prices to break through.
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) — entities that have held their coins for at least 155 days — are showing a stronger holding pattern, even as BTC prices approach historical highs.
Analyzing changes in LTH supply, well-known crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto noted that supply has increased to 80%, indicating strong confidence within this investor group.
“Over 80% of Bitcoin is currently being HODL'd,” the analyst mentioned in a post on X on Tuesday (July 8), referring to the most popular Bitcoin investment strategy.
In Bitcoin's 15-year history, the supply held by LTHs has only exceeded 80% twice. This occurred in February 2024 and October 2024, triggering price recoveries of 72% and 84%, respectively.
When the majority of BTC's total circulating supply is held by "diamond hands," prices tend to surge significantly at any hint of "new" demand, CrediBULL Crypto explained, adding, “Now that the 'excess' supply has returned to long-term holders, and Bitcoin financial companies are leading the way, the next impulse is about to come. This one could be bigger than the last two (over $50,000). Who is ready for Bitcoin over $150,000?
In BTC terms, the total supply held by LTHs reached an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC on June 5, valued at approximately $1.6 trillion.
⚡️ BULLISH: Long-term Bitcoin holders have reached an all-time high, with supply held for 155+ days signaling strong conviction and reduced sell pressure. pic.twitter.com/kF1dMvsFcF
This trend, combined with steady purchases from institutional investors, suggests that a high proportion of Bitcoin supply may become illiquid, amplifying BTC's upside potential when demand increases.
Bitcoin traders are anticipating bullish price volatility, as evidenced by their increased positions in September $130,000 call options on Deribit.
These call options give buyers the right to purchase Bitcoin at a predetermined price, indicating expectations of bullish volatility, with traders anticipating that Bitcoin may break out from the current range of $100,000 to $110,000.
“Volatility remains near historical lows, but breaking through the $110,000 resistance level could trigger new volatility demand. Some big players seem to be preparing for this,” Singapore's QCP Capital stated in their Telegram investor note on Monday, adding, “They continue to increase their exposure to September $130,000 call options while firmly holding September $115,000/$140,000 call spreads, emphasizing a structurally bullish outlook for the third quarter.”
According to CoinGlass, the BTC/USDT three-month liquidation heatmap shows a large liquidity cluster above $110,000. A significant number of sell orders are also positioned between $122,000 and $130,000.
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Original: “BTC prices rallied 72% and 84% the last two times Bitcoin holders did this”
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