Trump Gives Trade Negotiators Three More Weeks, but Threatens to Raise Tariffs

Author: Jin Shi Data

From South Africa to Malaysia, negotiators from various countries negotiating trade agreements with the White House have received the "reward" of waiting three more weeks under high-pressure conditions.

On Monday, U.S. President Trump once again extended the deadline for countries to reach bilateral trade agreements, this time to August 1. His statement carried a threatening tone—stating in letters to multiple national leaders that starting next month, these countries' exports would face tariffs of 25% to 40%.

Market analyst Gabriel Rubin stated, this is essentially a reiteration of his "D-Day" tariff threat, and his "whack-a-mole" demands suggest that even if an agreement is reached, the outlook is not optimistic.

Rubin pointed out, the experiences of Japan and South Korea serve as cautionary tales. In Trump's April trade statement, he imposed tariffs of 24% and 25% on the two countries, respectively, and then postponed implementation for negotiations. Subsequently, he complained that Japan imported too little U.S. rice and cars.

However, in reality, half of the rice imported by Japan duty-free comes from the U.S.; and the total U.S. rice exports globally amount to only about $2 billion, far less than the $13 billion that Japan's tourism industry contributed to the U.S. economy in 2019 (U.S. State Department data). Even so, Trump and his spokesperson Karoline Leavitt continue to cling to this issue.

South Korea's experience reflects the cost of "failing to meet Trump's sudden whims." The free trade agreement between South Korea and the U.S., which took effect in 2012, has not prevented Trump's comprehensive pressure today. Currently, Trump's agenda may hinder South Korean industrial giants from expanding production capacity in the U.S.—recent cuts to electric vehicle subsidies could impact South Korean battery manufacturer SK On and automaker Hyundai, among others.

For smaller countries, meeting Trump's tariff threats is even more challenging. Take Laos as an example, where the value of goods imported from the U.S. in 2024 is $40 million, while exports to the U.S. reach $803 million. This scale is negligible in the context of the U.S.'s $1.2 trillion trade deficit, but Trump's promise to impose a 40% tariff on its exports would have a significant impact on Laos's $16 billion economy.

Aside from lowering tariffs that have not yet been implemented, the benefits that countries can gain from reaching an "agreement" are actually quite vague. For instance, in the temporary agreement announced by Trump for Vietnam, not only was a 20% tariff set, but there were also special tariffs imposed on "goods from other countries transshipped through Vietnam."

On Monday, for Japan and South Korea, which have not reached agreements, the terms announced by Trump also included such "transshipment taxes," along with a baseline tax rate of 25%. According to the White House, Vietnam has even reduced tariffs on U.S. goods to zero.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to target new "thorns in his side"—such as threatening to impose an additional 10% tariff on BRICS countries. Whether this chaotic situation can truly come to an end remains uncertain.

For various countries, the best outcome may be something like the framework agreement reached between the U.S. and the U.K.: merely relaxing some trade barriers, with little else changing. Nevertheless, this still represents a small victory at present and does not guarantee that Trump will not change his mind in the future.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。