Source: Techub News "Unprotected in the Crypto Circle" Issue 15
Content organized by: Peter_Techub News
On the evening of July 4, 2025, at 19:30, the fifteenth session of "Unprotected in the Crypto Circle," co-hosted by Techub News, Uweb, and Chain Intelligence, took place as scheduled, igniting enthusiasm in the Web3 community. This episode was hosted by Chinese Web3.0 professional host Qie Ge, who invited three guests: Elma, co-founder of Dashu Finance, Lawyer Wang Lei, partner at Shanghai Mankun Law Firm, and Balance, quantitative partner at Quantera Lab, to engage in an in-depth discussion on the legality of US stocks on-chain, the prospects of the crypto market, and Trump's economic policies. Below is a summary of the core viewpoints of the guests and the host's conclusions on three major topics, structured clearly and within 2000 words.
Legality and Market Potential of US Stocks on-Chain
Lawyer Wang Lei, partner at Shanghai Mankun Law Firm, analyzed the compliance of US stocks on-chain (stock tokenization) from a legal perspective. She pointed out that the compliance of individual participation in US stocks on-chain investment is not a new issue. If investors have a US stock account and the relevant operational capabilities, there are no significant legal barriers. Lawyer Wang is more concerned about the impact of stock tokenization on the mainland and Hong Kong markets, particularly whether Hong Kong can launch similar products by reference. She stated that the development potential of the Hong Kong market depends on communication with regulatory bodies (such as the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) and policy breakthroughs, but this process may take time. She emphasized that compared to legal issues, the innovation space in the Hong Kong market is more promising.
Balance, quantitative partner at Quantera Lab, analyzed the market prospects of US stocks on-chain from a quantitative perspective. He expressed skepticism about Robinhood's involvement, pointing out its restriction on trading during the 2021 GameStop incident, questioning whether its motivation for US stocks on-chain might lean towards speculative hype rather than substantial investment. Balance believes that the mature valuation system of traditional finance (such as price-to-earnings ratio) and the chaotic valuation logic of the crypto market (such as PoW coins and meme coins) are difficult to unify, making it hard for retail investors to find investment standards. He predicts that US stocks on-chain may siphon liquidity from the crypto market, impacting altcoins and Web3 projects, and accelerating the exposure of market bubbles. Additionally, he noted that quantitative trading further dilutes liquidity, posing challenges to the crypto industry in the short term, while the impact of ETFs is mainly limited to traditional investors and has little correlation with on-chain assets.
Elma, co-founder of Dashu Finance, explored the industry impact of US stocks on-chain from a financial perspective. She believes that Robinhood's positioning towards retail investors makes it highly relevant to the theme of US stocks on-chain, which may temporarily drive up crypto asset prices due to market enthusiasm. However, in the long run, attention should be paid to the liquidity diversion effect of US stocks on-chain, which may weaken the attractiveness of altcoins and Web3 projects. She emphasized that the market needs to focus on the trend of integration between traditional finance and the crypto market, as well as potential regulatory and technological challenges.
Host Qie Ge pointed out that US stocks on-chain, as a hotspot for the combination of traditional finance and blockchain, has attracted widespread attention from the audience. He used Kraken's use of the Solana blockchain and Robinhood's adoption of Ethereum Layer 2's Arbitrum technology as examples to illustrate the diversity of technical paths. From the guests' discussions, the legality issue is controllable within the existing framework, but there are differences in market prospects: it may bring a crypto market boom in the short term, while in the long term, liquidity diversion and regulatory uncertainty may pose challenges to the industry. Qie Ge emphasized that potential breakthroughs in the Hong Kong market are worth looking forward to.
Trump's Economic Policies and Crypto Market Volatility
Elma, co-founder of Dashu Finance, analyzed the impact of Trump's economic policies on US stocks on-chain and the crypto market from a financial perspective. She pointed out that Trump's policies continue the "America First" ideology, maintaining the interests of American companies through corporate tax cuts, welfare reductions (such as Medicaid and food stamps), and increased military and border security spending, reflecting a conservative approach of "ability first, survival of the fittest." At the same time, monetary easing policies (such as printing money to stimulate the economy) have temporarily boosted the stock and crypto markets, forming a "Trump Market 2.0," but the market shows segmented volatility rather than a one-sided rise. Elma warned that in the long run, the $450 billion debt cost in the US may squeeze private investment, weaken consumer power, and trigger a butterfly effect that impacts the stock and crypto markets, creating a vicious cycle. She likened the current market to "Trump's casino," trading short-term prosperity for political goals.
Balance, quantitative partner at Quantera Lab, added insights on the quantitative impact of Trump's policies on the crypto market. He believes that the liquidity increase driven by monetary easing is beneficial for crypto assets in the short term, but market volatility is exacerbated, and retail investors chasing high-risk tokens may intensify the bubble. Balance pointed out that the positive impact of ETFs on the crypto market has been limited over the past two years, as the behavior of retail-dominated crypto markets differs significantly from that of traditional financial ETF investors, making it difficult to form a synergistic effect in the short term.
Qie Ge summarized that the impact of Trump's economic policies on the crypto market is twofold: it stimulates market enthusiasm in the short term, driving "Trump Market 2.0," but long-term debt issues may trigger systemic risks. The guests unanimously agreed that the crypto market needs to be wary of policy-driven volatility, and investors should rationally assess risks to avoid blindly chasing short-term benefits.
Reasons for Bitcoin Surpassing $110,000 and Future Trends
Balance, quantitative partner at Quantera Lab, analyzed the driving factors behind Bitcoin's price surpassing $110,000. He pointed out that market sentiment, institutional capital inflows, and the macroeconomic environment are the main driving forces. Trump's monetary easing policy has stimulated demand for risk assets, combined with hot events like US stocks on-chain, further pushing up Bitcoin's price. However, Balance warned that Bitcoin's high volatility and the overall liquidity shortage in the crypto market may lead to a risk of correction. From a quantitative perspective, he believes that Bitcoin still has room for growth in the short term, but altcoins may face pressure due to liquidity diversion.
Elma, co-founder of Dashu Finance, added from a macro perspective that the rise in Bitcoin's price is closely related to the market optimism triggered by Trump's policies. She emphasized that the interconnectedness between the crypto market and traditional finance is increasing, and Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as "digital gold" has attracted more traditional investors. However, she cautioned that debt issues and policy uncertainties may impact the market in the next 1-2 years, and investors should pay attention to global economic trends.
Host Qie Ge concluded that Bitcoin's surpassing of $110,000 reflects the market's optimistic expectations for the integration of macro policies and blockchain technology, but the guests all reminded investors to pay attention to long-term risks. Qie Ge pointed out that Bitcoin's rise may further differentiate the crypto market, with a significant performance gap between quality assets and altcoins, and investors should remain cautious.
Final Topic Qie Ge discussed the differences between Hong Kong's stablecoin (launching on August 1) and US stablecoins (with the bill effective in mid-July) and their benefits to the crypto circle, questioning the "false prosperity" of the US economy (with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs), and inquiring about the policies, application scenarios, and market impacts of stablecoins.
Balance: Mentioned the tax exemption for small crypto transactions (under $5,000) in the OBBBA bill, which is beneficial for stablecoin consumption, but expressed caution about the development of stablecoins, worrying about the risks of US debt collateral, drawing parallels to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. He pointed out that companies like MicroStrategy are driving investments with Web3 narratives, questioning sustainability. He believes that interest rate cuts have limited impact on the crypto market, and Bitcoin is a risk asset that requires attention to policy and data fluctuations.
Elma believes that the stablecoin market has great potential and can challenge traditional payment tools, while Hong Kong's development is slower due to policy restrictions, and the US is developing faster due to legalization and Trump's support. Nationally issued stablecoins have lower risks and may replace traditional payments in the future, but the differences between the two regions mainly lie in policy support and market maturity.
Lawyer Wang Lei compared Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" with the US "Guinness Act," noting that the former sets an issuance framework (licensing, auditing, etc.), while the latter unifies regulation to enhance transparency. Both regional bills provide operational pathways for institutions and individuals, requiring the identification of application scenarios and ecological positions to enhance market compliance.
This fifteenth session of "Unprotected in the Crypto Circle" delved into discussions on US stocks on-chain, Trump's economic policies, and Bitcoin's price breakthrough. Lawyer Wang Lei confirmed the compliance of US stocks on-chain investment from a legal perspective and looked forward to the potential of the Hong Kong market; Balance warned of liquidity diversion and market bubble risks from a quantitative perspective; and Elma analyzed the short-term benefits and long-term hidden dangers of Trump's policies from a financial perspective. Host Qie Ge summarized that the Web3 industry is at a critical juncture of integration between traditional finance and blockchain, and investors need to find a balance between enthusiasm and rationality, paying attention to the dynamic changes in policies, technology, and the market.
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