Core Points:
98% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in profit, indicating strong bullish sentiment while also highlighting the risks of market volatility and price corrections.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by 2025, but the key lies in whether demand can be sustained.
The prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 is becoming increasingly common. The recent significant increase in profit levels not only reflects a bullish market atmosphere but also intensifies concerns about short-term corrections.
On-chain data provider Glassnode shows that from June 22 to last Sunday, the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit surged from 87% to 98%. As of Tuesday (July 1), approximately 96.7% of Bitcoin was in the profit zone, exceeding the high range shown in the chart below.
Historical experience indicates that a high level of profitable supply typically exacerbates market volatility, as a large number of profit-taking positions increase selling pressure. Despite the overall optimistic market performance, vigilance regarding price corrections has also increased.
For example, from January to April this year, Bitcoin's price fell from about $109,000 to $74,000, a decline that closely followed the rise of the profitable supply ratio to 98.8% on January 21.
Profit indicators also reflect the current market's dual nature of being bullish yet cautious. For instance, since June 22, Bitcoin's realized profit-loss ratio has risen from 1.1 to 2.8, breaking through the high threshold of 2.4, an increase of 156.4%.
Glassnode analysts noted in the latest "Weekly Market Pulse" report that this phenomenon "shows strong market confidence but also reminds investors that if price momentum weakens, the risks of profit-taking and demand exhaustion will rise."
Glassnode further stated: "The current market has entered a cautiously optimistic phase, with the continued entry of institutional investors and a new round of capital accumulation providing support for Bitcoin's price. Whether this round of increases can be sustained depends on ongoing buying and broader market confidence."
Since Bitcoin rebounded from the bear market low of $15,500 in November 2022, it has accumulated a rise of 590%, with the current price around $107,000. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards pointed out that Bitcoin's weekly price movements show higher highs and higher lows, forming a clear upward channel.
The analyst posted on the X platform on Monday, stating: "Bitcoin is about to break through a multi-year channel."
Accompanying charts show that Bitcoin's price is attempting to break through the upper trend line, with Stockmoney Lizards setting a short-term target of $140,000 and a year-end target of $200,000. "The next round of market activity will be extremely intense."
This view aligns with the analyst's previous prediction that if Bitcoin breaks through the monthly OTT optimization trend tracking band, the 2025 target remains $200,000, with the potential to "extend" to $250,000 next year.
Analyst Mags also believes that if Bitcoin breaks through the upper trend line shown by Stockmoney Lizards, "it could trigger a massive bull market." Mags' short-term target is the 2.618 Fibonacci level, which is $155,000.
The prediction of Bitcoin hitting $200,000, especially in the second half of 2025, is becoming a hot target of market attention. For example, Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, predicts based on a power law model that Bitcoin could reach a range of $130,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Bitwise Investment points out that U.S. President Trump's trade policies have led to a weakening dollar index, which may drive BTC to $200,000.
Bernstein Research states that with the increase in institutional demand driven by Bitcoin spot ETFs and BTC reserve companies, Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Related: Musk threatens to establish the "American Party"! The fate of Trump's "Beautiful Law" and crypto tax reform intertwined.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Aiming for $200,000, Profit Metrics Entering 'Cautiously Optimistic' Zone”
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