On the surface, the crypto market barely moved in the first half of 2025.

Despite all the tantrum about tariffs, impending recession, war, and heightened expectations of crypto friendly policies and a digital asset strategic reserve with Donald Trump's return to the White House, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, measured by TradingView, inched up a measly 3% to $3.27 trillion over the past six months.

Looking closer, the performance was starkly uneven, with bitcoin BTC holding up the rest of the market.

BTC climbed 13% in the first six months of 2025, continuing to outshine the broader market. Meanwhile, Ethereum's ether ETH, the second-largest crypto asset, tumbled 25%, and Solana SOL shed nearly 17%.

Smaller and riskier tokens endured even sharper losses: the OTHERS index on TradingView, which excludes the 10 largest assets by market cap, plunged 30%.

What's next?

Despite the modest start to the year, some analysts see room for renewed upside. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, noted that July has historically been a strong month for crypto, averaging 7.56% returns since 2013.

“We enter a period that has traditionally delivered stronger returns,” said Kruger. “With the second half of the year historically producing outsized gains, the broader setup remains encouraging.”

Kruger also highlighted that the crypto treasury strategy trend is increasingly expanding beyond bitcoin, with firms announcing plans to accumulate digital assets like ETH.

Coinbase analysts also maintained a positive outlook for crypto through the second half of the year, driven by favorable macroeconomic backdrop, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. with lawmakers advancing legislation for stablecoins and the broader crypto market structure.

Still, the next couple months could be lackluster, Bitfinex analysts warned. The next quarter-year starting with July has been historically the weakest for bitcoin, averaging only 6% gains since 2013, they said in a Monday report.

"This is also where average volatility is subdued, adding to our bias of range bound price action continuing for longer," the authors noted.

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