Persistent economic uncertainty is reshaping financial stability, and mounting structural vulnerabilities threaten to delay recovery unless policymakers confront fragile foundations with credible reforms. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Agustín Carstens stated on June 29 at the BIS Annual General Meeting in Basel that the global economy has entered a “new era of heightened uncertainty,” reversing a brief period of optimism.

While noting that prospects had improved as inflation eased and growth strengthened earlier this year, Carstens stressed that a sudden pivot in U.S. policy disrupted markets. The BIS general manager warned:

The outlook has since darkened. The announcement of broad-based US tariffs sent shockwaves through markets.

“Trade policy changes have been accompanied by the prospect of an ambitious fiscal expansion, questioning of central bank independence, discussions about penalising foreign holders of US securities and challenges to the legal system, among others. The repeated cycle of announcements, adjustments and reversals has fostered an atmosphere of uncertainty and unpredictability,” he added.

Carstens further shared: “The market reaction was telling. Volatility soared. The US dollar depreciated even as government bond yields rose – an extraordinary, troubling combination.” He continued:

These unusual dynamics led to speculation in some quarters about the US dollar’s long-standing safe haven status.

His speech emphasized the need to address entrenched global weaknesses: poor productivity growth, unsound fiscal positions, and the rise of unregulated non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Tariff-driven trade fragmentation is exacerbating inflationary pressures and undermining economic flexibility. Carstens noted that these measures often fail to achieve intended goals and instead deepen structural challenges. He advocated for reforms that strengthen market agility, reduce trade barriers, and invest in public infrastructure to support sustainable growth.

Turning to future risks, Carstens underlined the fragility introduced by the growing dominance of NBFIs and the challenges posed by digital innovation. He stressed the importance of regulatory parity between banks and non-banks and highlighted the need for stronger oversight to prevent systemic risk. He opined:

Major innovations like the entry of big tech into finance, central bank digital currencies and artificial intelligence are challenging and reshaping the financial system.

To guide this transformation, he proposed a new architecture centered on tokenized central bank reserves and government bonds, which he believes will enhance trust and transactional efficiency in the years ahead.

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