The daily trading volume of Solana Memecoin starts to rise from 10-11 UTC and peaks between 15-20 UTC, highly coinciding with the daytime working hours in the United States.
Author: Nico
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
At the beginning of April this year, I conducted a quantitative analysis of the state of the “Solana Meme Coin market” (commonly referred to as “the trenches”).
Now, let’s take another look to see what changes have occurred during this time!
Introduction
Since the last analysis, there have been some new developments in the market:
Rumors about the Pumpfun Token ICO, with private sales currently ongoing;
Axiom has achieved market dominance and launched a new platform;
Competition among major Launchpad platforms has intensified, along with trends of diversification and expansion.
In the past, many trading infrastructures were commonly referred to as “bots,” but I believe it is now more accurate to call them “terminals.” With technological advancements, many traditional bots have been phased out, leaving only those targeting mobile, social scenarios, and niche demands still active.
Pumpfun Token ICO: Market Focus
What we currently know:
Plans to raise $1 billion, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, and will be fully released upon launch;
The ICO will be conducted through top centralized exchanges (CEXs) and the Pump.fun platform;
Participation in the ICO requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification;
Early investors in the private sale phase must still adhere to lock-up period rules;
An airdrop event is likely, with an expected scale of about 10%.
Impact on “the trenches”:
The release of the Pump Token is likely to become a highly anticipated market event;
As one of the few tokens on Solana with long-term investment value and mass appeal, Pump Token is expected to create a positive growth flywheel due to its revenue model;
In the short term, it may siphon liquidity from the Solana ecosystem and “the trenches” market, but in the long run, if the incentive mechanisms are appropriate, it will have a positive impact on ecosystem development;
The airdrop event may create a wealth effect, attracting participation from old users, existing users, and new users.
I expect the FDV of Pump Token to fall within the range of $10-20 billion, not far from HYPE, but higher than ENA, potentially placing it among the top 10-20 tokens.
The Battle of Trading Terminals
In the past two months, the activity of all trading terminal platforms has experienced a gradual decline.
Currently, Axiom has surpassed 60% market share, firmly in first place, with Photon in second, while GMGN, Trojan, and BullX are competing for the remaining market share. Bloom and Bonkbot maintain a certain market relevance, while emerging competitors like Padre and Nova are also starting to attract more attention.
Trading Terminal Market Share (Snapshot as of June 25, 2025)
Axiom: Market share 61% / Cumulative fees $137 million / Daily active users (DAU) approximately 33,000-45,000
Photon: Market share 9.9% / Cumulative fees $410 million / DAU approximately 20,000-30,000
BullX: Market share 5.8% / Cumulative fees $197 million / DAU approximately 10,000-20,000
GMGN: Market share 6.8% / Cumulative fees $78 million / DAU approximately 10,000
Trojan: Market share 4.8% / Cumulative fees $187 million / DAU over 20,000
As trading bots and terminals have generated approximately $1 billion in revenue, this field has attracted a large number of competitors. I have spoken with many who intend to develop their own terminals and participate in the competition, but the general view is that it is a tough battle, as market trading volume is gradually decreasing. However, this situation may change after the release of Pumpfun Token.
It is worth noting that the most popular and profitable platforms do not necessarily have the best user interface, feature set, speed, or data accuracy. However, they have won the market with excellent distribution capabilities, which is key.
I plan to write a dedicated article exploring the battle between technology and distribution capabilities, and how it affects the choices of specific user groups, so stay tuned.
The Battle of Launchpads
During April and May, we witnessed the rise of the following Launchpad platforms:
Launch Lab of @RaydiumProtocol
Although these competing Launchpad platforms initially attracted considerable attention, their market share is gradually declining. However, tokens like $USELESS on the letsbonk.fun platform have gained success, attracting more attention and positioning it as a Launchpad with less competition but more support from the Bonk ecosystem.
Orange (Bonk), Green (Believe), Purple (Raydium Launchlab)
In June, only the bonded coins of the Pumpfun and LetsBonk platforms showed significant activity. From the data, green represents Pumpfun, orange represents LetsBonk, with green occupying the majority of the market, followed by orange. The number of bonded coins on the Pumpfun platform is about 200, while the LetsBonk platform has between 10-30. However, both are experiencing a declining growth rate.
LetsBonk
On the LetsBonk.fun platform, the total market capitalization (mcap) of all its tokens is less than $200 million, mainly concentrated in the following tokens:
$USELESS: Market cap of $140 million
$HOSICO: Market cap of $22 million
$CryBB: Market cap of $11 million
Among them, $USELESS stands out, receiving enthusiastic support and promotion from Bonk community members (such as @theunipcs).
Believe
The emergence of the Believe platform can be seen as unexpected yet logical, focusing on “Internet Capital Markets,” aiming to raise funds and enhance visibility for startup projects with real utility through token issuance, no longer limited to purely Meme Coins.
Launch Coin is its official token, performing the best, focusing on initiating token launch plans through Twitter. While this concept is not new, the Believe platform attempts to change market rules through innovation.
The platform has introduced restrictions on new token sniping, such as taxing the trades of early buyers to penalize those who excessively extract liquidity, while encouraging creators to buy and hold their tokens long-term, theoretically driving further price increases.
This series of measures has brought a brief but interesting market frenzy. However, currently, Launch Coin remains the main beneficiary of the Believe ecosystem, absorbing most of the liquidity, while other tokens occasionally experience volatility due to surges in demand.
The community has generated a lot of discussion and controversy (both support and criticism) regarding its founder @pasternak, looking forward to the platform entering the next stage of the flywheel effect. As it stands, related efforts are still ongoing.
I recommend keeping an eye on the latest developments of the Believe platform in real-time and suggest checking the following screening tools:
- Believe App Screener (provided by @0x_ultra) and Believe Screener
Launch Lab
The top tokens worth noting on Raydium's Launch Lab platform are actually initiated through the Lets Bonk platform, with Launch Lab serving merely as a backend execution tool primarily for creating liquidity pools based on Raydium.
Activities and Data Metrics of Pumpfun
As a Launchpad platform, Pumpfun has generated up to $765 million in fee revenue to date, which can almost be considered pure profit, with daily income ranging between $1-2 million.
The platform has created a total of 11.5 million tokens, but the issuance speed of tokens has slowed down since the $TRUMP token.
The graduation rate of tokens (successfully meeting targets) has also significantly decreased, but it seems to have slightly rebounded and stabilized at around 0.8%.
Trading volume saw a significant increase in March and April, but has decreased since then, currently trending downwards at about $1 billion per week.
User activity is also declining, consistent with the activity levels in March/April when there was a surge in users, many of whom were new wallets. Now, there are about 70K+ active users and 50K+ new users daily.
PumpSwap
On the PumpSwap platform, token creators have earned $6.6 million in fee revenue through the platform.
Total platform revenue has reached $93 million, with $73 million going to liquidity providers (LPs) and $18 million belonging to the platform protocol.
Despite a decrease in trading volume, the number of daily trades continues to increase, indicating that PumpSwap's market share in decentralized exchanges (DEX) is gradually expanding.
Interesting Market Insights
For users unfamiliar with the Solana Meme Coin market, here are some interesting trends:
Daily trading volume starts to rise from 10-11 UTC and peaks between 15-20 UTC, highly coinciding with the daytime working hours in the United States.
Not only does the daily trading volume exhibit periodic fluctuations, but the average trade size and number of trades also follow a similar pattern.
Data shows that the 3-hour moving average (yellow) and 24-hour moving average (blue) of the number of trades exhibit certain periodic changes.
Number of Independent Traders
Weekend trading volume typically decreases by 10-15%, but remains relatively stable during weekdays.
References:
Dune dashboards, provided by @AdamTehc, can be found here: https://dune.com/adamtehc
Periodic charts of trading volume and independent users, provided by @idatsy
Some data sourced from the dashboard of @whalehunter: https://dune.com/whale_hunter
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