Key Points:
Even amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin's volatility remains lower than that of major U.S. stock indices.
Long-term holders currently control a record 145,300 Bitcoins, effectively reducing the circulating supply in the market.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to continue rising, with some predicting a price of $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Data shared by Bitwise Europe Research Director André Dragosch shows that Bitcoin's price stability over the past few weeks has outperformed many top U.S. stocks.
As of Monday, Bitcoin's 60-day realized volatility (a key indicator of price fluctuation) has dropped to about 27%-28%, lower than the S&P 500 index (around 30%), the Nasdaq 100 index (around 35%), and even the much-watched "Tech Seven" stocks (around 40%).
Bitcoin's low volatility is particularly noteworthy as this phenomenon occurs during a period of escalating conflict in the Middle East, especially following U.S. bombings in Iran. Bitcoin's price only fell by 6%, dropping below $100,000, during the weekend.
In previous market cycles, such geopolitical shocks typically triggered larger and more chaotic price fluctuations. For example, at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, Bitcoin's realized volatility soared to 60%-65%, far exceeding the performance of U.S. stocks at that time.
However, this time, Bitcoin's volatility has remained relatively low, indicating that most traders and investors are not reacting with panic, and it also demonstrates that Bitcoin is gradually maturing into a stable asset class.
Glassnode analysts noted in their latest report that the growth of long-term holders has largely stabilized the Bitcoin market in recent weeks.
They pointed out: "Currently, over 30% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by just 216 centralized entities—including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. This concentration of ownership is transforming Bitcoin into a 'mature asset class.'"
The total supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has steadily increased in recent years, reaching a record 145,300 Bitcoins (30-day average) as of Monday, close to 70% of the maximum supply of 21 million.
As long-term holders continue to remove supply from the circulating market and institutional demand rises, Bitcoin's price has maintained an upward trend over the years, providing a sustained upward momentum for prices.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL Chief Business Officer Eugene Cheung expect Bitcoin's price to continue breaking the $100,000 mark in the future, driven by central bank monetary easing policies and strong institutional support.
Some analysts predict that Bitcoin's price will exceed $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Related: Anchorage adds DeFi functionality for institutions through integration with Uniswap wallet.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is less volatile than stocks in Iran-Israel conflict”
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